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Independiente vs Instituto

Independiente vs Instituto 1-4 Score & Prediction Review

Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Season 2026 (Round 11)

Fair result

Independiente

1–4

Instituto

0.6Chances (xG)1.4

On these chances Independiente would usually take 0.8 points and Instituto 2.0; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Independiente.

Independiente −0.8 pts vs chancesInstituto +1.0 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Independiente vs Instituto stats: how the match was played

Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Instituto had more than twice the shots on target

Independiente

Instituto

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

Red cards

47%

Possession

53%

The match between Independiente and Instituto ended 1-4. Our AI model predicted a Independiente win at 44% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. None of the key markets landed for this fixture — these matches help refine the model and improve future accuracy.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Racing Club – Independiente prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Independiente vs Instituto — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga Profesional de Fútbol

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Independiente to win

Wrong

Our model 44%Bookmakers 39%

Our track record

In 3,626 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.0% of the time (bookmakers said 46.9%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

Our model 53%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 58%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 79%Bookmakers 85%

Our track record

In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

Our model 50%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Independiente Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Independiente 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 62%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 3,463 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.8% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).

Instituto Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Instituto 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 75%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 3,381 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Independiente vs Instituto 1-4 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Independiente vs Instituto. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Argentina

Independiente1

Instituto4

Winner

1X 72%

BTTS*

No 53%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 69%

· FT

Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Argentina

Independiente1

Instituto4

Winner

1X 72%

BTTS*

No 53%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 69%

Full Time

144%

X28%

228%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	32%	68%	58%	42%	69%	31%	89%	11%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	32%	68%	58%	42%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	69%	31%	89%	11%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	28%	72%	62%	38%	85%	15%	95%	5%
	39%	61%	74%	26%	92%	8%	98%	2%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	28%	72%	62%	38%
	39%	61%	74%	26%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	85%	15%	95%	5%
	92%	8%	98%	2%

1st Half

130%

X50%

221%

1st Score

152%

X10%

237%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

24%

X-X

21%

X-1

17%

2-2

13%

X-2

10%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

13.0%

1-0

12.8%

0-0

10.4%

0-1

9.3%

2-1

9.0%

2-0

8.2%

1-2

6.6%

0-2

4.5%

2-2

4.2%

3-1

3.8%

3-0

3.5%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Independiente vs Instituto — Recent Form

Instituto have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 1st in the table. Independiente have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 7th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Instituto

Independiente

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Independiente

1/5

Instituto

2/5

Both Teams to Score

Independiente

1/5

Instituto

1/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Independiente

3/5

Instituto

1/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Independiente

4/5

Instituto

2/5

First Half Result

Independiente

4/5

Instituto

4/5

Correct Score

Independiente

0/5

Instituto

0/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Racing Club – Independiente prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).