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Turkey vs Italy 1-4 Score & Prediction Review
UEFA Nations League - Season 2026/2027 League A (Group Stage) (Round 2)
Turkey vs Italy — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · UEFA Nations League
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Italy to win
CorrectOur track record
In 3,513 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 2,403 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).
Our model’s pick
Italy ahead at half-time
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Draw at half-time.
Our track record
In 2,232 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.
Our model’s pick
Turkey 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,463 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.8% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).
Our model’s pick
Italy 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 1,014 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.6% of the time (bookmakers said 59.2%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Turkey vs Italy 1-4 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Turkey vs Italy. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Turkey1
Italy4Winner
X2 67%
BTTS*
Yes 60%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 63%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 51%
Turkey1Italy4Winner
X2 67%
BTTS*
Yes 60%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 63%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 51%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 17% | 83% | 37% | 63% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 51% | 49% | 76% | 24% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 31% | 69% | 61% | 39% |
 | 23% | 77% | 51% | 49% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82% | 18% | 93% | 7% |
| 76% | 24% | 90% | 10% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
30%
1-1
18%
X-2
15%
X-X
12%
X-1
10%
2-X
5%
1-X
3%
1-2
3%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
9.5%
1-2
9.2%
0-1
7.7%
2-1
7.6%
0-2
6.2%
2-2
5.9%
1-0
5.5%
1-3
5.2%
0-0
4.1%
0-3
4.0%
2-0
4.0%
3-1
3.9%
2-3
3.7%
3-2
3.0%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Turkey vs Italy — Recent Form
Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
ItalyTurkeyBoth Teams to Score
ItalyTurkeyOver/Under 2.5 Goals
ItalyTurkeyOver/Under 3.5 Goals
ItalyTurkeyFirst Half Result
ItalyTurkeyCorrect Score
ItalyTurkey