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Sweden vs Poland 3-1 Score & Prediction Review
UEFA Nations League - Season 2026/2027 League B (Group Stage) (Round 2)
Sweden vs Poland — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · UEFA Nations League
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Sweden to win
CorrectOur track record
In 2,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 2,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 2,403 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).
Our model’s pick
Sweden ahead at half-time
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Draw at half-time.
Our track record
In 2,232 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.
Our model’s pick
Sweden 2+ goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,827 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).
Our model’s pick
Poland 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,280 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Sweden vs Poland 3-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Sweden vs Poland. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Sweden3
Poland1Winner
1 52%
BTTS*
Yes 61%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 61%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 51%
Sweden3Poland1Winner
1 52%
BTTS*
Yes 61%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 61%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 51%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 18% | 82% | 39% | 61% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 51% | 49% | 75% | 25% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 18% | 82% | 46% | 54% |
 | 38% | 62% | 69% | 31% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70% | 30% | 87% | 13% |
| 88% | 12% | 96% | 4% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
34%
X-1
17%
X-X
13%
2-2
13%
X-2
8%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-1
10.3%
2-1
9.8%
1-0
8.0%
2-0
7.2%
1-2
6.2%
3-1
5.9%
2-2
5.7%
0-1
5.3%
3-0
4.9%
0-0
4.9%
3-2
3.9%
0-2
3.2%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Sweden vs Poland — Recent Form
Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
PolandSwedenBoth Teams to Score
PolandSwedenOver/Under 2.5 Goals
PolandSwedenOver/Under 3.5 Goals
PolandSwedenFirst Half Result
PolandSwedenCorrect Score
PolandSweden