TPS vs Ilves 1-3 Score & Prediction Review

Veikkausliiga - Season 2026 (Round 16)

Fair result

TPS

1–3

Ilves

1.1Chances (xG)1.9

On these chances TPS would usually take 0.9 points and Ilves 1.9; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Ilves.

TPS −0.9 pts vs chancesIlves +1.1 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

TPS vs Ilves stats: how the match was played

Veikkausliiga

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Ilves had more than twice the shots on target

TPS

Ilves

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

Red cards

42%

Possession

58%

The match between TPS and Ilves ended 1-3. Our AI model predicted a TPS win at 39% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.

TPS vs Ilves — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Veikkausliiga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

TPS to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Ilves to win.

Our model 39%Bookmakers 35%

Our track record

In 1,529 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 62%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 2,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 62%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 62%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 2,403 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 38%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 2,043 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.3% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).

TPS Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

TPS 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 55%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 3,482 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Ilves Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Ilves 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 58%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 1,616 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.6% of the time (bookmakers said 61.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

TPS vs Ilves 1-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for TPS vs Ilves. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Veikkausliiga - Finland

TPS1

Ilves3

Winner

12 76%

BTTS*

Yes 62%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 62%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 52%

· FT

Veikkausliiga - Finland

TPS1

Ilves3

Winner

12 76%

BTTS*

Yes 62%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 62%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 52%

Full Time

139%

X24%

237%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	18%	82%	38%	62%	52%	48%	77%	23%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	18%	82%	38%	62%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	52%	48%	77%	23%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	25%	75%	55%	45%	80%	20%	92%	8%
	27%	73%	58%	42%	81%	19%	93%	7%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	25%	75%	55%	45%
	27%	73%	58%	42%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	80%	20%	92%	8%
	81%	19%	93%	7%

1st Half

130%

X38%

233%

1st Score

147%

X5%

249%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

25%

1-1

20%

X-1

13%

X-X

13%

X-2

12%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

10.3%

2-1

8.9%

1-2

8.4%

1-0

7.0%

2-2

6.6%

0-1

6.5%

2-0

5.2%

0-2

4.9%

0-0

4.5%

3-1

4.4%

1-3

4.3%

2-3

3.5%

3-2

3.3%

3-0

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score