HJK vs TPS 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

Veikkausliiga - Season 2026 (Round 17)

Fair result

HJK

1–0

TPS

1.4Chances (xG)1.4

On these chances HJK would usually take 1.3 points and TPS 1.4; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: HJK.

HJK +1.7 pts vs chancesTPS −1.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

HJK vs TPS stats: how the match was played

Veikkausliiga

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

TPS had clearly more shots on target

HJK

TPS

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

68%

Possession

33%

The match between HJK and TPS ended 1-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a HJK win with 65% confidence before kick-off. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Full-Time Result — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: HJK – KuPS prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

HJK vs TPS — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Veikkausliiga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

HJK to win

Correct

Our model 65%Bookmakers 71%

Our track record

In 1,062 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 67.0% of the time (bookmakers said 66.4%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

Our model 60%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 64%Bookmakers 65%

Our track record

In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 58%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 937 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.1% of the time (bookmakers said 60.1%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

HJK ahead at half-time

Correct

Our model 50%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 1,249 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.1% of the time (bookmakers said 51.8%).

HJK Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

HJK 2+ goals

Wrong

Our model 64%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 3,463 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.8% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).

TPS Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

TPS 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 77%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 2,600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

HJK vs TPS 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for HJK vs TPS. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Veikkausliiga - Finland

HJK1

TPS0

Winner

1 65%

BTTS*

Yes 60%

Correct Score

2-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 64%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 52%

· FT

Veikkausliiga - Finland

HJK1

TPS0

Winner

1 65%

BTTS*

Yes 60%

Correct Score

2-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 64%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 52%

Full Time

165%

X19%

216%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	16%	84%	36%	64%	48%	52%	72%	28%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	16%	84%	36%	64%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	48%	52%	72%	28%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	12%	88%	36%	64%	62%	38%	81%	19%
	47%	53%	77%	23%	93%	7%	98%	2%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	12%	88%	36%	64%
	47%	53%	77%	23%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	62%	38%	81%	19%
	93%	7%	98%	2%

1st Half

150%

X34%

216%

1st Score

167%

X4%

229%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

43%

X-1

19%

X-X

10%

2-2

1-X

X-2

2-1

2-X

1-2

Correct Score

2-1

10.1%

2-0

9.1%

1-0

8.8%

1-1

8.7%

3-1

7.2%

3-0

7.1%

2-2

5.3%

1-2

4.3%

3-2

4.1%

0-0

3.8%

0-1

3.8%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: HJK – KuPS prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).