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TPS vs Mariehamn

TPS vs Mariehamn 3-0 Score & Prediction Review

Veikkausliiga - Season 2026 (Round 18)

Fair result

TPS

3–0

Mariehamn

1.7Chances (xG)0.8

On these chances TPS would usually take 2.0 points and Mariehamn 0.8; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: TPS.

TPS +1.0 pts vs chancesMariehamn −0.8 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

TPS vs Mariehamn stats: how the match was played

Veikkausliiga

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

TPS had more than twice the shots on target

TPS

Mariehamn

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

55%

Possession

45%

The match between TPS and Mariehamn ended 3-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a TPS win with 57% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

TPS vs Mariehamn — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Veikkausliiga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

TPS to win

Correct

Our model 57%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 1,802 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.2% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

Our model 57%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 58%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 64%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 2,403 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: TPS ahead at half-time.

Our model 40%Bookmakers 37%

Our track record

In 2,232 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

TPS Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

TPS 2+ goals

Correct

Our model 56%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 3,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Mariehamn Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Mariehamn 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 74%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 3,381 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

TPS vs Mariehamn 3-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for TPS vs Mariehamn. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Veikkausliiga - Finland

TPS3

Mariehamn0

Winner

1 57%

BTTS*

Yes 57%

Correct Score

2-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 54%

· FT

Veikkausliiga - Finland

TPS3

Mariehamn0

Winner

1 57%

BTTS*

Yes 57%

Correct Score

2-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 54%

Full Time

157%

X22%

221%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	20%	80%	42%	58%	54%	46%	78%	22%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	20%	80%	42%	58%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	54%	46%	78%	22%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	17%	83%	44%	56%	71%	29%	87%	13%
	42%	58%	74%	26%	91%	9%	98%	2%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	17%	83%	44%	56%
	42%	58%	74%	26%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	71%	29%	87%	13%
	91%	9%	98%	2%

1st Half

140%

X40%

220%

1st Score

160%

X5%

235%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

33%

X-1

19%

X-X

13%

2-2

11%

X-2

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

2-1

10.4%

1-1

10.0%

1-0

9.8%

2-0

8.9%

3-1

6.3%

3-0

5.6%

1-2

5.4%

2-2

5.4%

0-1

5.1%

0-0

4.9%

3-2

3.6%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score