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Ilves vs Mariehamn

Ilves vs Mariehamn 2-0 Score & Prediction Review

Veikkausliiga - Season 2026 (Round 19)

Fair result

Ilves

2–0

Mariehamn

1.5Chances (xG)1.4

On these chances Ilves would usually take 1.5 points and Mariehamn 1.3; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Ilves.

Ilves +1.5 pts vs chancesMariehamn −1.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Ilves vs Mariehamn stats: how the match was played

Veikkausliiga

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Ilves

Mariehamn

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

48%

Possession

52%

The match between Ilves and Mariehamn ended 2-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Ilves win with 72% confidence before kick-off. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Full-Time Result — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.

Ilves vs Mariehamn — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Veikkausliiga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Ilves to win

Correct

Our model 72%Bookmakers 76%

Our track record

In 325 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

Our model 54%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 68%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 1,157 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.0% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 55%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 937 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.1% of the time (bookmakers said 60.1%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Ilves ahead at half-time

Correct

Our model 48%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Ilves Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Ilves 2+ goals

Correct

Our model 70%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 1,588 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Mariehamn Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Mariehamn 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 81%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 1,503 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 78.8% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Ilves vs Mariehamn 2-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Ilves vs Mariehamn. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Veikkausliiga - Finland

Ilves2

Mariehamn0

Winner

1 72%

BTTS*

Yes 54%

Correct Score

2-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 68%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 55%

· FT

Veikkausliiga - Finland

Ilves2

Mariehamn0

Winner

1 72%

BTTS*

Yes 54%

Correct Score

2-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 68%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 55%

Full Time

172%

X16%

212%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	15%	85%	32%	68%	45%	55%	68%	32%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	15%	85%	32%	68%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	45%	55%	68%	32%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	9%	91%	30%	70%	55%	45%	76%	24%
	54%	46%	81%	19%	94%	6%	98%	2%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	9%	91%	30%	70%
	54%	46%	81%	19%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	55%	45%	76%	24%
	94%	6%	98%	2%

1st Half

148%

X38%

214%

1st Score

170%

X3%

227%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

44%

X-1

20%

X-X

10%

2-2

X-2

2-1

2-X

1-X

1-2

Correct Score

2-1

10.0%

2-0

9.1%

3-0

8.8%

1-0

8.6%

3-1

7.5%

1-1

7.2%

2-2

4.4%

3-2

3.6%

1-2

3.6%

0-0

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score