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Lahti vs Mariehamn

Lahti vs Mariehamn 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

Veikkausliiga - Season 2026 (Round 1)

Fair result

Lahti

2–1

Mariehamn

1.6Chances (xG)0.9

On these chances Lahti would usually take 1.9 points and Mariehamn 0.9; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Lahti.

Lahti +1.1 pts vs chancesMariehamn −0.9 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Lahti vs Mariehamn stats: how the match was played

Veikkausliiga

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Lahti had more than twice the shots on target

Lahti

Mariehamn

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

66%

Possession

34%

The match between Lahti and Mariehamn ended 2-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Lahti win with 66% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

Lahti vs Mariehamn — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Veikkausliiga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lahti to win

Correct

Our model 66%Bookmakers 64%

Our track record

In 613 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 70.8% of the time (bookmakers said 70.8%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 55%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 6,452 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.2% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 61%Bookmakers 59%

Our track record

In 3,077 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.4% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 62%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 2,373 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.7% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).

Lahti Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lahti 2+ goals

Correct

Our model 64%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 3,452 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.9% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).

Mariehamn Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Mariehamn 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 80%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 2,574 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Lahti vs Mariehamn 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Lahti vs Mariehamn. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Veikkausliiga - Finland

Lahti2

Mariehamn1

Winner

1 66%

BTTS*

Yes 55%

Correct Score

2-0 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 61%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 52%

· FT

Veikkausliiga - Finland

Lahti2

Mariehamn1

Winner

1 66%

BTTS*

Yes 55%

Correct Score

2-0 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 61%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 52%

Full Time

166%

X19%

215%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	18%	82%	39%	61%	52%	49%	75%	25%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	18%	82%	39%	61%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	52%	49%	75%	25%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	12%	88%	36%	64%	63%	37%	82%	18%
	49%	51%	80%	20%	94%	6%	98%	2%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	12%	88%	36%	64%
	49%	51%	80%	20%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	63%	37%	82%	18%
	94%	6%	98%	2%

Correct Score

2-0

10.3%

2-1

9.9%

1-0

9.5%

1-1

9.0%

3-0

7.6%

3-1

7.2%

2-2

4.7%

0-0

4.3%

1-2

4.3%

0-1

4.1%

3-2

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score