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Mariehamn vs Ilves

Mariehamn vs Ilves 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

Veikkausliiga - Season 2026 (Round 4)

Fair result

Mariehamn

1–1

Ilves

1.3Chances (xG)1.6

On these chances Mariehamn would usually take 1.2 points and Ilves 1.6; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Ilves.

Mariehamn −0.2 pts vs chancesIlves −0.6 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Mariehamn vs Ilves stats: how the match was played

Veikkausliiga

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Ilves had more than twice the shots on target

Mariehamn

Ilves

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

57%

Possession

44%

The match between Mariehamn and Ilves ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted an Ilves win at 50% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Jaro – Mariehamn prediction & betting tips (Oct 17, 2026).

Mariehamn vs Ilves — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Veikkausliiga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Ilves to win

Wrong

Our model 50%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 2,455 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 58%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 5,591 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 54%Bookmakers 61%

Our track record

In 5,107 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.2% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 69%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 3,906 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 66.9%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

Our model 41%Bookmakers 39%

Our track record

In 6,608 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.8% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Mariehamn Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Mariehamn 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 71%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 1,564 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Ilves Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Ilves 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Ilves 2+ goals.

Our model 50%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 825 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 42.7% than to our 50–55%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Mariehamn vs Ilves 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Mariehamn vs Ilves. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Veikkausliiga - Finland

Mariehamn1

Ilves1

Winner

2 50%

BTTS*

Yes 58%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 59%

· FT

Veikkausliiga - Finland

Mariehamn1

Ilves1

Winner

2 50%

BTTS*

Yes 58%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 59%

Full Time

125%

X24%

250%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	22%	78%	46%	54%	59%	41%	82%	18%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	22%	78%	46%	54%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	59%	41%	82%	18%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	37%	63%	71%	29%	91%	9%	97%	3%
	20%	80%	50%	50%	77%	23%	91%	9%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	37%	63%	71%	29%
	20%	80%	50%	50%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	91%	9%	97%	3%
	77%	23%	91%	9%

1st Half

123%

X41%

236%

1st Score

137%

X6%

257%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

28%

X-2

16%

1-1

15%

X-X

15%

X-1

10%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

11.5%

1-2

10.1%

0-1

9.8%

0-2

8.4%

2-1

6.7%

1-0

6.5%

2-2

6.1%

0-0

5.8%

1-3

5.1%

0-3

4.8%

2-0

3.7%

2-3

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Mariehamn vs Ilves — Recent Form

Ilves have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 4 matches and currently sit 2nd in the table. Mariehamn have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 4 matches and currently sit 6th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Ilves

Mariehamn

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Ilves

2/5

Mariehamn

3/5

Both Teams to Score

Ilves

3/5

Mariehamn

3/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Ilves

3/5

Mariehamn

2/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Ilves

4/5

Mariehamn

5/5

First Half Result

Ilves

2/4

Mariehamn

2/4

Correct Score

Ilves

1/5

Mariehamn

2/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Jaro – Mariehamn prediction & betting tips (Oct 17, 2026).