Brick wall
5/10HJK kept 5 clean sheets in their last 10 (league 28%).
HJK vs Gnistan Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Veikkausliiga - Season 2026 (Round 6)
Riding their luck
Gnistan are taking more points than their chances usually bring
+4points more than their chances usually bring in their last 10
85% of teams this far ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: Gnistan 16% to winHJK 64%
HJK vs Gnistan score prediction
Veikkausliiga
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Goal-fest alert3.1 goals expected
3.1 goals in total: more goals than a typical Veikkausliiga game (average 2.6).
goals expected
HJK2.1
Gnistan1.1Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
Goal-fest alert: we expect at least 2.7 goals, clearly more than usual in this league (8.5% above the average). Since July 2025, these games averaged 3.2 goals, and 62% went over 2.5.
Bore draw alert: we expect 2.3 goals or fewer, clearly less than usual (11% below the average). These games averaged 2.2 goals, and 63% stayed under 2.5.
Bookmakers usually see these coming too, so use the alert to know what kind of game to expect, not as a betting edge.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for HJK vs Gnistan: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
HJK vs Gnistan — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Veikkausliiga
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
HJK to win
Our model 59%Bookmakers 64%
Our track record
In 1,761 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.2%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
HJK vs Gnistan — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for HJK vs Gnistan. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
HJK–
Gnistan–Winner
1 59%
BTTS*
Yes 59%
Correct Score
2-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 60%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 53%
HJK–Gnistan–Winner
1 59%
BTTS*
Yes 59%
Correct Score
2-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 60%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 53%
Full Time
159%
X21%
220%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 19% | 81% | 40% | 60% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 53% | 47% | 77% | 23% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15% | 85% | 42% | 58% |
| 43% | 57% | 74% | 26% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 69% | 31% | 86% | 14% |
| 92% | 8% | 98% | 2% |
1st Half
148%
X34%
218%
1st Score
165%
X4%
230%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
41%
X-1
18%
X-X
11%
2-2
10%
X-2
6%
1-X
5%
2-1
4%
2-X
4%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
2-1
10.5%
1-1
9.8%
1-0
9.7%
2-0
8.9%
3-1
6.5%
3-0
6.1%
1-2
5.5%
2-2
5.5%
0-1
4.5%
0-0
4.5%
3-2
3.9%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
HJK vs Gnistan: the stats that stand out
Veikkausliiga
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%HJK: brick wall, hard to break and banker as favourites
5/10Hard to break
3/10HJK conceded first in only 3 of their last 10 (league 47%).
Banker as favourites
6/9HJK won 6 of 9 as favourites (league 50%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →HJK vs Gnistan: attack vs defence
Veikkausliiga
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Veikkausliiga teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- HJK: good attack, good defence (1.65 xG, 1.08 xGA a game)
- Gnistan: good attack, weak defence (1.74 xG, 1.73 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →HJK vs Gnistan form and luck check
Veikkausliiga
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Veikkausliiga gamesGnistan are taking more points than their chances usually bring
- HJKBookmakers: 64% to win today.+1.2
- GnistanBookmakers: 16% to win today.+4.2
Last 5 matches
HJKW
D
D
W
GnistanD
D
W
D
W
D
L
Strength rank: HJK 1st of 12 · Gnistan 7th of 12
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 12 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →HJK vs Gnistan: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Veikkausliiga
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Veikkausliiga gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in Gnistan games more often than the Veikkausliiga average (51%), in HJK games less often.
Over 2.5 goalsleague 46%
HJK6 of 10
Gnistan5 of 10
BTTSleague 51%
HJK4 of 10
Gnistan8 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 177 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →HJK vs Gnistan corners, cards and goal times
Veikkausliiga
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameGnistan score late
HJK
Gnistan
5.2
Corners won · league 5.1
5.8
5.0
Corners conceded · league 5.1
4.2
0.9
Cards · league 1.8
1.6
2.0
Opponents' cards · league 1.8
2.0
56%
Goals before half-time · league 48%
47%
6%
Goals after 75' · league 20%
33%
22%
Conceded before half-time · league 48%
67%
22%
Conceded after 75' · league 20%
17%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
HJK3/5
Gnistan0/5
Both Teams to Score
HJK3/5
Gnistan4/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
HJK3/5
Gnistan1/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
HJK4/5
Gnistan5/5
First Half Result
HJK3/5
Gnistan3/4
Correct Score
HJK2/5
Gnistan3/5
correct predictionwrong prediction