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England vs Argentina 1-2 Score & Prediction Review

World Cup - Season 2026 Semi-finals (Knock Out)

Fair result

England

1–2

Argentina

0.5Chances (xG)1.6

On these chances England would usually take 0.6 points and Argentina 2.2; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: England.

England −0.6 pts vs chancesArgentina +0.8 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

England vs Argentina stats: how the match was played

World Cup

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Argentina had more than twice the shots on target

England

Argentina

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

36%

Possession

64%

The match between England and Argentina ended 1-2. Our AI model predicted a England win at 42% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.

England vs Argentina — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · World Cup

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

England to win

Wrong

Our model 42%Bookmakers 36%

Our track record

In 3,626 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.0% of the time (bookmakers said 46.9%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 65%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 406 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.1% of the time (bookmakers said 65.2%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Under 2.5 goals.

Our model 64%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 105 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.2% than to our 60–65%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 58%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 937 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.1% of the time (bookmakers said 60.1%).

England Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

England 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 52%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 2,827 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).

Argentina Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Argentina 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 58%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 1,616 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.6% of the time (bookmakers said 61.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

England vs Argentina 1-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for England vs Argentina. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

World Cup - World

England1

Argentina2

Winner

1X 65%

BTTS*

Yes 65%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 64%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 52%

· FT

World Cup - World

England1

Argentina2

Winner

1X 65%

BTTS*

Yes 65%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 64%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 52%

Full Time

142%

X23%

235%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	16%	84%	36%	64%	48%	52%	73%	27%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	16%	84%	36%	64%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	48%	52%	73%	27%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	24%	76%	52%	49%	76%	24%	90%	10%
	29%	71%	58%	42%	80%	20%	92%	8%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	24%	76%	52%	49%
	29%	71%	58%	42%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	76%	24%	90%	10%
	80%	20%	92%	8%

Correct Score

1-1

9.9%

2-1

8.5%

1-2

7.6%

2-2

6.7%

1-0

6.5%

0-1

5.8%

2-0

5.6%

3-1

4.9%

0-2

4.4%

1-3

4.0%

3-2

3.9%

0-0

3.9%

2-3

3.5%

3-0

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score