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Paredes vs Maria da Fonte

Paredes vs Maria da Fonte 5-1 Score & Prediction Review

Taça De Portugal - Season 2026/2027 2nd Round (Knock Out)

Paredes vs Maria da Fonte stats: how the match was played

Taça De Portugal

Paredes had more than twice the shots on target

Paredes

Maria da Fonte

Shots on target

Corners

Yellow cards

The match between Paredes and Maria da Fonte ended 5-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Paredes win with 56% confidence before kick-off. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Full-Time Result — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Paredes – Famalicão prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Paredes vs Maria da Fonte — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Taça De Portugal

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Paredes to win

Correct

Our model 56%Bookmakers 83%

Our track record

In 1,737 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

Our model 59%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 5,494 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 57%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 793 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 47.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.3% than to our 55–60%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 78%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,596 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.3% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Paredes ahead at half-time.

Our model 44%Bookmakers 34%

Our track record

In 2,132 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.7% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.4% than to our 40–45%.

Paredes Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Paredes 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Paredes 2+ goals.

Our model 54%Bookmakers 28%

Our track record

In 1,800 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.8% than to our 50–55%.

Maria da Fonte Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Maria da Fonte 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 82%Bookmakers 91%

Our track record

In 1,481 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 78.6% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Paredes vs Maria da Fonte 5-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Paredes vs Maria da Fonte. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Taça De Portugal - Portugal

Paredes5

Maria da Fonte1

Winner

1 56%

BTTS*

No 59%

Correct Score

1-0 15%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 57%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 68%

· FT

Taça De Portugal - Portugal

Paredes5

Maria da Fonte1

Winner

1 56%

BTTS*

No 59%

Correct Score

1-0 15%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 57%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 68%

Full Time

156%

X25%

219%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	32%	68%	57%	43%	68%	32%	87%	13%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	32%	68%	57%	43%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	68%	32%	87%	13%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	22%	78%	54%	46%	79%	21%	92%	8%
	50%	50%	82%	18%	95%	5%	99%	1%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	22%	78%	54%	46%
	50%	50%	82%	18%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	79%	21%	92%	8%
	95%	5%	99%	1%

1st Half

142%

X44%

214%

1st Score

163%

X10%

227%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

36%

X-1

19%

X-X

17%

2-2

X-2

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-0

14.6%

1-1

11.2%

2-0

11.2%

0-0

9.6%

2-1

9.5%

0-1

7.3%

3-0

6.2%

1-2

4.5%

3-1

4.4%

2-2

3.5%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Paredes vs Maria da Fonte — Recent Form

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Paredes

1/1

Maria da Fonte

1/1

Both Teams to Score

Paredes

0/1

Maria da Fonte

0/1

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Paredes

0/1

Maria da Fonte

0/1

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Paredes

0/1

Maria da Fonte

0/1

First Half Result

Paredes

0/1

Maria da Fonte

0/1

Correct Score

Paredes

0/1

Maria da Fonte

0/1

correct predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Paredes – Famalicão prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).