Always on the scoresheet
0/10PSV scored in all of their last 10 (league 19% fail to score).
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PSV vs Willem II Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Eredivisie - Season 2026/2027 (Round 11)
Goal-fest alert
More goals than usual expected in PSV vs Willem II
4.4goals expected · Eredivisie average 3.3
Since July 2025, games with an alert like this averaged 3.2 goals, and 62% went over 2.5.
Bookmakers: over 2.5 goals 85%
PSV vs Willem II score prediction
Eredivisie
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Goal-fest alert4.4 goals expected
4.4 goals in total: more goals than a typical Eredivisie game (average 3.3).
goals expected
PSV3.4
Willem II0.9Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
Goal-fest alert: we expect at least 2.7 goals, clearly more than usual in this league (8.5% above the average). Since July 2025, these games averaged 3.2 goals, and 62% went over 2.5.
Bore draw alert: we expect 2.3 goals or fewer, clearly less than usual (11% below the average). These games averaged 2.2 goals, and 63% stayed under 2.5.
Bookmakers usually see these coming too, so use the alert to know what kind of game to expect, not as a betting edge.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for PSV vs Willem II: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
PSV vs Willem II — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Eredivisie
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
PSV to win
Our model 77%Bookmakers 91%
Our track record
In 145 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 84.8% of the time (bookmakers said 80.8%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
No, not both
Our model 50%Bookmakers 52%
Our track record
In 6,454 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 64%Bookmakers 85%
Our track record
In 3,076 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.3% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 54%Bookmakers 33%
Our track record
In 179 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.5% than to our 50–55%.
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
PSV ahead at half-time
Our model 65%Bookmakers 75%
Our track record
In 110 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 69.1% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).
PSV Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
PSV 2+ goals
Our model 72%Bookmakers 91%
Our track record
In 1,579 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.8% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).
Willem II Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Willem II 0–1 goals
Our model 87%Bookmakers 85%
Our track record
In 595 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 85–90% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 85.2% of the time (bookmakers said 85.0%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
PSV vs Willem II — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for PSV vs Willem II. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
PSV–
Willem II–Winner
1 77%
BTTS*
No 50%
Correct Score
2-0 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 64%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 56%
PSV–Willem II–Winner
1 77%
BTTS*
No 50%
Correct Score
2-0 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 64%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 56%
Full Time
177%
X16%
28%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 18% | 82% | 36% | 64% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 44% | 56% | 65% | 35% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9% | 91% | 28% | 72% |
| 65% | 35% | 87% | 13% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51% | 49% | 71% | 29% |
| 96% | 4% | 99% | 1% |
1st Half
165%
X24%
212%
1st Score
174%
X5%
221%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
60%
X-1
15%
X-X
6%
2-1
4%
2-2
4%
1-X
3%
X-2
3%
2-X
3%
1-2
1%
Correct Score
2-0
11.2%
1-0
10.7%
3-0
8.9%
2-1
7.3%
3-1
6.6%
1-1
5.7%
0-0
5.3%
3-2
3.3%
2-2
3.2%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
PSV vs Willem II: the stats that stand out
Eredivisie
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%PSV: always on the scoresheet and banker as favourites · Willem II: leaky
0/10Leaky
0/9Willem II kept no clean sheet in their last 9 (league 19%).
Banker as favourites
7/10PSV won 7 of 10 as favourites (league 51%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →PSV vs Willem II: attack vs defence
Eredivisie
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Eredivisie teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- PSV: good attack, good defence (2.22 xG, 1.27 xGA a game)
- Willem II: weak attack, weak defence (1.15 xG, 2.10 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →PSV vs Willem II form and luck check
Eredivisie
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Eredivisie gamesBoth results in line with their chances
- PSVBookmakers: 91% to win today.Clinical · +6 goals+1.0
- Willem IIBookmakers: 3% to win today. · 9 of 10 games−3.3
Last 5 matches
PSVL
W
L
W
W
Willem IIL
L
L
L
D
W
D
L
Strength rank: PSV 1st of 18 · Willem II 18th of 18
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 18 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →PSV vs Willem II: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Eredivisie
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averageup to 10 recent Eredivisie gamesBTTS = both teams scoredPSV and Willem II games both go over 2.5 goals more often than the Eredivisie average (63%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 63%
PSV9 of 10
Willem II7 of 9
BTTSleague 65%
PSV9 of 10
Willem II7 of 9
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 309 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →PSV vs Willem II corners, cards and goal times
Eredivisie
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameWillem II: last 9 with these statsWillem II score late
PSV
Willem II
7.0
Corners won · league 5.3
3.9
3.5
Corners conceded · league 5.3
6.6
1.6
Cards · league 1.6
1.3
1.8
Opponents' cards · league 1.6
1.1
50%
Goals before half-time · league 44%
22%
22%
Goals after 75' · league 22%
44%
54%
Conceded before half-time · league 44%
31%
31%
Conceded after 75' · league 22%
19%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Willem II3/5
PSV2/5
Both Teams to Score
Willem II3/5
PSV4/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Willem II3/5
PSV4/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Willem II2/5
PSV2/5
First Half Result
Willem II3/5
PSV2/5
Correct Score
Willem II0/5
PSV0/5
correct predictionwrong prediction