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PSV vs Fortuna Sittard 2-2 Score & Prediction Review

Eredivisie - Season 2026/2027 (Round 1)

Robbed

PSV drew despite more chances

PSVPSV

2–2

Fortuna SittardFortuna Sittard
2.2Chances (xG)1.0

On these chances PSV would usually take 2.2 points and Fortuna Sittard 0.6; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: PSV.

PSV −1.2 pts vs chancesFortuna Sittard +0.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

PSV vs Fortuna Sittard stats: how the match was played

Eredivisie

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

PSV

Fortuna Sittard

6

Shots on target

6

5

Big chances

1

9

Corners

0

1

Yellow cards

1

75%

Possession

25%

The match between PSV and Fortuna Sittard ended 2-2. Our AI model predicted a PSV win at 63% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: NEC – Fortuna Sittard prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

PSV vs Fortuna Sittard — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Eredivisie

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

PSV to win

Wrong
Our model 63%Bookmakers 81%

Our track record

In 1,062 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 67.0% of the time (bookmakers said 66.4%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 63%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 2,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 70%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 289 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.6% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 3.5 goals.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 178 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.6% than to our 50–55%.

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

PSV ahead at half-time

Wrong
Our model 51%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 1,249 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.1% of the time (bookmakers said 51.8%).

PSV Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

PSV 2+ goals

Correct
Our model 67%Bookmakers 85%

Our track record

In 2,712 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Fortuna Sittard Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Fortuna Sittard 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 73%Bookmakers 80%

Our track record

In 3,381 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

PSV vs Fortuna Sittard 2-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for PSV vs Fortuna Sittard. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Eredivisie - Netherlands
PSVPSV2
Fortuna SittardFortuna Sittard2

Winner

1 63%

BTTS*

Yes 63%

Correct Score

2-1 09%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 70%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 59%

Full Time

163%
X19%
218%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT13%87%30%70%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT41%59%66%34%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
PSV12%88%33%67%
Fortuna Sittard45%55%73%27%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
PSV57%43%77%23%
Fortuna Sittard90%10%97%3%

1st Half

151%
X30%
219%

1st Score

167%
X3%
230%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

46%

X-1

17%

X-X

9%

2-2

9%

X-2

5%

1-X

4%

2-1

4%

2-X

4%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

2-1

9.2%

1-1

7.7%

2-0

7.3%

3-1

7.3%

1-0

6.4%

3-0

6.1%

2-2

5.7%

1-2

4.8%

3-2

4.6%

0-1

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: NEC – Fortuna Sittard prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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