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Ajax vs PSV 1-3 Score & Prediction Review
Eredivisie - Season 2026/2027 (Round 5)
Ajax1–3
PSVOn these chances Ajax would usually take 1.7 points and PSV 1.0; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: PSV.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Ajax vs PSV stats: how the match was played
Eredivisie
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Level on shots on target
Ajax
PSV
6
Shots on target
5
4
Big chances
3
1
Corners
1
2
Yellow cards
5
54%
Possession
46%
Ajax vs PSV — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Eredivisie
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Ajax to win
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: PSV to win.
Our track record
In 1,064 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 30.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.3% than to our 40–45%.
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 406 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.1% of the time (bookmakers said 65.2%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 289 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.6% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 3.5 goals.
Our track record
In 178 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.6% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Ajax ahead at half-time
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Draw at half-time.
Our track record
In 1,233 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.1% of the time (bookmakers said 35.1%).
Our model’s pick
Ajax 2+ goals
WrongOur track record
In 2,827 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).
Our model’s pick
PSV 0–1 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: PSV 2+ goals.
Our track record
In 848 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 42.6% than to our 50–55%.
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Ajax vs PSV 1-3 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Ajax vs PSV. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Ajax1
PSV3Winner
1X 65%
BTTS*
Yes 69%
Correct Score
1-1 08%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 70%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 59%
Ajax1PSV3Winner
1X 65%
BTTS*
Yes 69%
Correct Score
1-1 08%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 70%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 59%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 13% | 88% | 30% | 70% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 41% | 59% | 68% | 32% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22% | 78% | 48% | 52% |
| 28% | 72% | 54% | 46% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73% | 27% | 88% | 12% |
| 77% | 23% | 90% | 10% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
26%
2-2
21%
X-1
16%
X-X
11%
X-2
9%
1-X
6%
2-X
5%
1-2
4%
2-1
3%
Correct Score
1-1
8.4%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
7.7%
2-2
7.4%
1-0
5.5%
3-1
5.1%
2-0
4.8%
3-2
4.7%
0-1
4.2%
1-3
4.2%
2-3
4.0%
0-2
3.8%
3-0
3.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score