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Willem II vs Excelsior 0-3 Score & Prediction Review

Eredivisie - Season 2026/2027 (Round 5)

Fair result
Willem IIWillem II

0–3

ExcelsiorExcelsior
1.2Chances (xG)1.4

On these chances Willem II would usually take 1.2 points and Excelsior 1.5; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Excelsior.

Willem II −1.2 pts vs chancesExcelsior +1.5 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Willem II vs Excelsior stats: how the match was played

Eredivisie

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Excelsior had more than twice the shots on target

Willem II

Excelsior

2

Shots on target

6

1

Big chances

2

7

Corners

6

2

Yellow cards

1

58%

Possession

42%

The match between Willem II and Excelsior ended 0-3. Our AI model correctly predicted an Excelsior win with 42% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Fortuna Sittard – Excelsior prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

Willem II vs Excelsior — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Eredivisie

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Excelsior to win

Correct
Our model 42%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 3,626 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.0% of the time (bookmakers said 46.9%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong
Our model 62%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 2,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 61%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 60%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 2,403 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 37%Bookmakers 39%

Our track record

In 2,043 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.3% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).

Willem II Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Willem II 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 60%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 3,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Excelsior Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Excelsior 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Excelsior 2+ goals.

Our model 53%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 848 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 42.6% than to our 50–55%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Willem II vs Excelsior 0-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Willem II vs Excelsior. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Eredivisie - Netherlands
Willem IIWillem II0
ExcelsiorExcelsior3

Winner

X2 66%

BTTS*

Yes 62%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 61%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 50%

Full Time

134%
X24%
242%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT18%82%39%61%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT50%50%76%24%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Willem II30%70%60%40%
Excelsior24%76%53%47%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Willem II83%17%94%6%
Excelsior77%23%90%10%

1st Half

127%
X37%
236%

1st Score

146%
X5%
250%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

27%

1-1

19%

X-X

14%

X-2

14%

X-1

10%

2-X

6%

1-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

10.5%

1-2

8.4%

2-1

7.6%

0-1

6.9%

2-2

6.6%

1-0

6.2%

0-2

5.5%

1-3

5.0%

0-0

4.8%

2-0

4.7%

3-1

3.9%

2-3

3.8%

3-2

3.2%

0-3

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Fortuna Sittard – Excelsior prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

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