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Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan 2-2 Score & Prediction Review

K-League 1 - Season 2026 (Round 18)

Fair result
Daejeon CitizenDaejeon Citizen

2–2

UlsanUlsan
1.2Chances (xG)1.3

On these chances Daejeon Citizen would usually take 1.3 points and Ulsan 1.5; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Daejeon Citizen.

Daejeon Citizen −0.3 pts vs chancesUlsan −0.5 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan stats: how the match was played

K-League 1

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Daejeon Citizen

Ulsan

3

Shots on target

4

3

Big chances

2

6

Corners

3

1

Yellow cards

0

52%

Possession

49%

The match between Daejeon Citizen and Ulsan ended 2-2. Our AI model predicted an Ulsan win at 39% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. None of the key markets landed for this fixture — these matches help refine the model and improve future accuracy.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Sangju Sangmu – Daejeon Citizen prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · K-League 1

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Ulsan to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Daejeon Citizen to win.

Our model 39%Bookmakers 34%

Our track record

In 1,528 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 3,139 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 57%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 817 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 55–60%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 78%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 45%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Daejeon Citizen Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Daejeon Citizen 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 70%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 1,588 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Ulsan Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Ulsan 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 65%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 2,695 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.1% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan 2-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Daejeon Citizen vs Ulsan. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
K-League 1 - South Korea
Daejeon CitizenDaejeon Citizen2
UlsanUlsan2

Winner

12 71%

BTTS*

No 51%

Correct Score

1-1 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 57%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 68%

Full Time

132%
X29%
239%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT31%69%57%43%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT68%32%89%11%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Daejeon Citizen34%66%70%30%
Ulsan29%71%65%35%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Daejeon Citizen91%9%98%2%
Ulsan87%13%96%4%

1st Half

125%
X45%
230%

1st Score

143%
X9%
248%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

22%

X-X

18%

1-1

17%

X-2

15%

X-1

13%

2-X

6%

1-X

5%

1-2

2%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

14.0%

0-1

11.3%

1-0

10.2%

0-0

9.2%

1-2

8.7%

2-1

7.4%

0-2

6.9%

2-0

5.6%

2-2

5.1%

1-3

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Sangju Sangmu – Daejeon Citizen prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

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