Home
Leagues
K-League 1
Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen

Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

K-League 1 - Season 2026 (Round 30)

Fair result

Incheon United

1–1

Daejeon Citizen

1.1Chances (xG)1.4

On these chances Incheon United would usually take 1.2 points and Daejeon Citizen 1.6; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Daejeon Citizen.

Incheon United −0.2 pts vs chancesDaejeon Citizen −0.6 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen stats: how the match was played

K-League 1

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Incheon United had clearly more shots on target

Incheon United

Daejeon Citizen

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

50%

Possession

50%

The match between Incheon United and Daejeon Citizen ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted an Daejeon Citizen win at 38% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Incheon United – Jeju United prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · K-League 1

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Daejeon Citizen to win

Wrong

Our model 38%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 2,116 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.6% of the time (bookmakers said 44.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 52%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 54%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 5,191 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 76%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 48%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Incheon United Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Incheon United 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 68%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 2,712 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Daejeon Citizen Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Daejeon Citizen 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 63%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 2,695 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.1% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

K-League 1 - South Korea

Incheon United1

Daejeon Citizen1

Winner

12 71%

BTTS*

Yes 52%

Correct Score

1-1 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 66%

· FT

K-League 1 - South Korea

Incheon United1

Daejeon Citizen1

Winner

12 71%

BTTS*

Yes 52%

Correct Score

1-1 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 66%

Full Time

132%

X29%

238%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	28%	72%	54%	46%	66%	34%	88%	12%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	28%	72%	54%	46%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	66%	34%	88%	12%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	32%	68%	68%	32%	89%	11%	97%	3%
	29%	71%	63%	37%	86%	14%	96%	4%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	32%	68%	68%	32%
	29%	71%	63%	37%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	89%	11%	97%	3%
	86%	14%	96%	4%

1st Half

125%

X48%

227%

1st Score

144%

X9%

247%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

21%

X-X

19%

1-1

17%

X-2

15%

X-1

13%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

13.7%

0-1

10.1%

1-0

9.3%

1-2

8.9%

0-0

8.8%

2-1

8.0%

0-2

6.3%

2-2

5.5%

2-0

5.3%

1-3

3.5%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen — Recent Form

Daejeon Citizen have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 5th in the table. Incheon United have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 7th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Daejeon Citizen

Incheon United

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Daejeon Citizen

3/5

Incheon United

2/5

Both Teams to Score

Daejeon Citizen

5/5

Incheon United

3/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Daejeon Citizen

2/5

Incheon United

3/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Daejeon Citizen

2/5

Incheon United

5/5

First Half Result

Daejeon Citizen

1/5

Incheon United

3/5

Correct Score

Daejeon Citizen

1/5

Incheon United

2/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Incheon United – Jeju United prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).