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Deportivo Alavés vs Valencia 0-1 Score & Prediction Review

La Liga - Season 2026/2027 (Round 6)

Fair result
Deportivo AlavésDeportivo Alavés

0–1

ValenciaValencia
1.4Chances (xG)0.9

On these chances Deportivo Alavés would usually take 1.8 points and Valencia 1.0; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Deportivo Alavés.

Deportivo Alavés −1.8 pts vs chancesValencia +2.1 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Deportivo Alavés vs Valencia stats: how the match was played

La Liga

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Deportivo Alavés

Valencia

3

Shots on target

3

2

Big chances

1

2

Corners

5

1

Yellow cards

4

42%

Possession

58%

The match between Deportivo Alavés and Valencia ended 0-1. Our AI model predicted a Deportivo Alavés win at 41% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Celta de Vigo – Deportivo Alavés prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Deportivo Alavés vs Valencia — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · La Liga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Deportivo Alavés to win

Wrong
Our model 41%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 3,626 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.0% of the time (bookmakers said 46.9%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: No, not both.

Our model 54%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 3,139 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 51%Bookmakers 53%

Our track record

In 5,191 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 72%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 4,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Deportivo Alavés ahead at half-time.

Our model 49%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 531 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 35.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 38.9% than to our 45–50%.

Deportivo Alavés Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Deportivo Alavés 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Deportivo Alavés 2+ goals.

Our model 60%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 1,027 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.1% than to our 55–60%.

Valencia Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Valencia 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 68%Bookmakers 80%

Our track record

In 3,280 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Deportivo Alavés vs Valencia 0-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Deportivo Alavés vs Valencia. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
La Liga - Spain
Deportivo AlavésDeportivo Alavés0
ValenciaValencia1

Winner

1X 69%

BTTS*

Yes 54%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 51%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 62%

Full Time

141%
X28%
231%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT27%73%51%49%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT62%38%85%15%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Deportivo Alavés27%73%60%40%
Valencia34%66%68%32%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Deportivo Alavés83%17%94%6%
Valencia88%12%96%4%

1st Half

130%
X49%
221%

1st Score

149%
X8%
243%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

23%

X-X

20%

X-1

16%

2-2

15%

X-2

11%

1-X

6%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

12.8%

1-0

10.2%

2-1

8.8%

0-1

8.4%

0-0

7.9%

1-2

7.3%

2-0

6.8%

2-2

5.6%

0-2

4.8%

3-1

4.1%

3-0

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Celta de Vigo – Deportivo Alavés prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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