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Newport County vs Chesterfield 4-1 Score & Prediction Review
League Two - Season 2026/2027 (Round 14)
Newport County4–1
ChesterfieldOn these chances Newport County would usually take 1.7 points and Chesterfield 1.1; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Chesterfield.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Newport County vs Chesterfield stats: how the match was played
League Two
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Newport County had clearly more shots on target
Newport County
Chesterfield
5
Shots on target
3
0
Big chances
2
6
Corners
4
2
Yellow cards
4
28%
Possession
72%
Newport County vs Chesterfield — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · League Two
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Chesterfield to win
WrongOur track record
In 3,530 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.6%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 6,514 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.4% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.
Our track record
In 2,885 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.3% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 4,597 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.1% of the time (bookmakers said 71.4%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Chesterfield ahead at half-time.
Our track record
In 2,293 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.
Our model’s pick
Newport County 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 1,602 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.8% of the time (bookmakers said 71.9%).
Our model’s pick
Chesterfield 0–1 goals
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Chesterfield 2+ goals.
Our track record
In 653 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.7% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.7% than to our 55–60%.
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Newport County vs Chesterfield 4-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Newport County vs Chesterfield. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Newport County4
Chesterfield1Winner
X2 71%
BTTS*
Yes 53%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 63%
Newport County4Chesterfield1Winner
X2 71%
BTTS*
Yes 53%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 63%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 26% | 74% | 51% | 49% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 63% | 37% | 85% | 15% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36% | 64% | 70% | 30% |
| 25% | 75% | 57% | 43% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90% | 10% | 97% | 3% |
| 82% | 18% | 94% | 6% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
26%
X-2
18%
X-X
15%
1-1
14%
X-1
10%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
1-2
3%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
12.2%
0-1
10.7%
1-2
9.5%
1-0
8.3%
0-2
7.8%
2-1
7.0%
0-0
6.9%
2-2
5.2%
2-0
4.7%
1-3
4.5%
0-3
3.8%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Newport County vs Chesterfield — Recent Form
Newport County have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 14th in the table. Chesterfield have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 10th in the table.
Last 5 matches
Newport CountyChesterfieldOur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Newport CountyChesterfieldBoth Teams to Score
Newport CountyChesterfieldOver/Under 2.5 Goals
Newport CountyChesterfieldOver/Under 3.5 Goals
Newport CountyChesterfieldFirst Half Result
Newport CountyChesterfieldCorrect Score
Newport CountyChesterfield