Leaky
1/10Chesterfield kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 10 (league 28%).
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Bristol Rovers vs Chesterfield Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
League Two - Season 2026/2027 (Round 15)
Unlucky
Bristol Rovers are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
−5points fewer than their chances usually bring in their last 10
83% of teams this far behind their chances got more points in their next 10 games. Chesterfield are also behind their chances: about −5 points.
Bookmakers: Bristol Rovers 37% to winChesterfield 37%
Bristol Rovers vs Chesterfield score prediction
League Two
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Evenly matched in front of goal
2.7 goals in total, a little over the League Two average of 2.6.
goals expected
Bristol Rovers1.3Chesterfield1.4Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Bristol Rovers vs Chesterfield: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Bristol Rovers vs Chesterfield — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · League Two
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Bristol Rovers to win
Our model 41%Bookmakers 37%
Our track record
In 3,639 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.7% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 62%Bookmakers 60%
Our track record
In 2,517 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.7%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 59%Bookmakers 56%
Our track record
In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 63%Bookmakers 66%
Our track record
In 2,424 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.7%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 43%Bookmakers 41%
Our track record
In 6,693 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.4% of the time (bookmakers said 44.1%).
Bristol Rovers Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Bristol Rovers 0–1 goals
Our model 55%Bookmakers 58%
Our track record
In 3,513 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.0% of the time (bookmakers said 61.2%).
Chesterfield Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Chesterfield 0–1 goals
Our model 61%Bookmakers 58%
Our track record
In 2,676 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.2% of the time (bookmakers said 63.7%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Bristol Rovers vs Chesterfield — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Bristol Rovers vs Chesterfield. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Bristol Rovers–
Chesterfield–Winner
1X 65%
BTTS*
Yes 62%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 59%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 53%
Bristol Rovers–Chesterfield–Winner
1X 65%
BTTS*
Yes 62%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 59%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 53%
Full Time
141%
X24%
235%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 20% | 80% | 41% | 59% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 53% | 47% | 77% | 23% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26% | 74% | 55% | 45% |
| 29% | 71% | 61% | 39% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79% | 21% | 91% | 9% |
| 83% | 17% | 94% | 6% |
1st Half
130%
X43%
227%
1st Score
148%
X5%
247%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
22%
2-2
19%
X-X
16%
X-1
14%
X-2
12%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
1-2
3%
2-1
3%
Correct Score
1-1
10.8%
2-1
8.8%
1-2
7.9%
1-0
7.4%
0-1
7.3%
2-2
5.9%
2-0
5.4%
0-0
5.1%
0-2
4.8%
3-1
4.5%
1-3
3.7%
3-2
3.6%
2-3
3.0%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Bristol Rovers vs Chesterfield: the stats that stand out
League Two
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Chesterfield: leaky and always on the scoresheet
1/10Always on the scoresheet
1/10Chesterfield failed to score in only 1 of their last 10 (league 28%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Bristol Rovers vs Chesterfield: attack vs defence
League Two
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other League Two teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Bristol Rovers: weak attack, good defence (1.34 xG, 1.19 xGA a game)
- Chesterfield: good attack, good defence (1.85 xG, 1.04 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Bristol Rovers vs Chesterfield form and luck check
League Two
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 League Two gamesBoth sides are getting less than their chances usually bring
- Bristol RoversBookmakers: 37% to win today.Wasteful · −7 goals−5.0
- ChesterfieldBookmakers: 37% to win today.−4.8
Last 5 matches
ChesterfieldL
W
D
L
D
Bristol RoversL
D
L
L
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: Bristol Rovers 7th of 24 · Chesterfield 4th of 24
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 24 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Bristol Rovers vs Chesterfield: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
League Two
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 League Two gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in Chesterfield games more often than the League Two average (53%), in Bristol Rovers games less often.
Over 2.5 goalsleague 48%
Bristol Rovers4 of 10
Chesterfield7 of 10
BTTSleague 53%
Bristol Rovers3 of 10
Chesterfield8 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 541 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Bristol Rovers vs Chesterfield corners, cards and goal times
League Two
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per game- Corners won: league 5.0
- Cards: league 1.9
- Goals before half-time: league 44%
- Goals after 75': league 24%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Bristol Rovers3/5
Chesterfield1/5
Both Teams to Score
Bristol Rovers3/5
Chesterfield4/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Bristol Rovers3/5
Chesterfield2/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Bristol Rovers3/5
Chesterfield2/5
First Half Result
Bristol Rovers1/5
Chesterfield0/5
Correct Score
Bristol Rovers0/5
Chesterfield1/5
correct predictionwrong prediction