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York City vs Bristol Rovers 3-2 Score & Prediction Review

League Two - Season 2026/2027 (Round 1)

Fair result
York CityYork City

3–2

Bristol RoversBristol Rovers
1.9Chances (xG)1.7

On these chances York City would usually take 1.5 points and Bristol Rovers 1.3; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: York City.

York City +1.5 pts vs chancesBristol Rovers −1.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

York City vs Bristol Rovers stats: how the match was played

League Two

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

York City had more than twice the shots on target

York City

Bristol Rovers

6

Shots on target

3

5

Big chances

2

7

Corners

6

2

Yellow cards

0

71%

Possession

29%

The match between York City and Bristol Rovers ended 3-2. Our AI model correctly predicted a York City win with 51% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: York City – Accrington Stanley prediction & betting tips (Oct 20, 2026).

York City vs Bristol Rovers — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · League Two

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

York City to win

Correct
Our model 51%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 2,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 59%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Under 2.5 goals.

Our model 61%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 105 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.2% than to our 60–65%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 62%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 2,403 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

York City ahead at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Draw at half-time.

Our model 41%Bookmakers 32%

Our track record

In 2,232 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

York City Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

York City 2+ goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: York City 0–1 goals.

Our model 53%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 1,869 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.

Bristol Rovers Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Bristol Rovers 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 67%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 3,280 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

York City vs Bristol Rovers 3-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for York City vs Bristol Rovers. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
League Two - England
York CityYork City3
Bristol RoversBristol Rovers2

Winner

1 51%

BTTS*

Yes 59%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 61%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 52%

Full Time

151%
X22%
227%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT18%82%39%61%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT52%49%76%24%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
York City19%81%47%53%
Bristol Rovers37%63%67%33%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
York City72%28%88%12%
Bristol Rovers87%13%96%4%

1st Half

141%
X38%
221%

1st Score

160%
X5%
235%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

35%

X-1

17%

X-X

13%

2-2

13%

X-2

8%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

9.9%

2-1

9.4%

1-0

8.3%

2-0

7.6%

1-2

6.5%

2-2

6.0%

3-1

5.9%

0-1

5.5%

0-0

4.7%

3-0

4.5%

3-2

4.0%

0-2

3.6%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: York City – Accrington Stanley prediction & betting tips (Oct 20, 2026).

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