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Swindon Town vs Port Vale 3-1 Score & Prediction Review

League Two - Season 2026/2027 (Round 4)

Fair result
Swindon TownSwindon Town

3–1

Port ValePort Vale
1.7Chances (xG)0.6

On these chances Swindon Town would usually take 2.2 points and Port Vale 0.6; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Port Vale.

Swindon Town +0.8 pts vs chancesPort Vale −0.6 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Swindon Town vs Port Vale stats: how the match was played

League Two

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Swindon Town had more than twice the shots on target

Swindon Town

Port Vale

6

Shots on target

2

5

Big chances

1

10

Corners

4

1

Yellow cards

1

46%

Possession

54%

The match between Swindon Town and Port Vale ended 3-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Swindon Town win with 50% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Barnet – Swindon Town prediction & betting tips (Oct 20, 2026).

Swindon Town vs Port Vale — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · League Two

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Swindon Town to win

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Port Vale to win.

Our model 50%Bookmakers 31%

Our track record

In 112 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 26.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.6% than to our 50–55%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 55%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 6,484 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Under 2.5 goals.

Our model 54%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 2,849 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 68%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 3,982 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 43%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 6,717 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Swindon Town Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Swindon Town 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 50%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 2,824 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).

Port Vale Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Port Vale 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 72%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 3,377 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.6% of the time (bookmakers said 72.1%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Swindon Town vs Port Vale 3-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Swindon Town vs Port Vale. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
League Two - England
Swindon TownSwindon Town3
Port ValePort Vale1

Winner

1 50%

BTTS*

Yes 55%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 58%

Full Time

150%
X25%
225%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT23%77%46%54%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT58%42%81%19%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Swindon Town21%79%50%50%
Port Vale39%61%72%28%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Swindon Town76%24%90%10%
Port Vale90%10%97%3%

1st Half

136%
X43%
221%

1st Score

159%
X6%
235%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

29%

X-1

17%

X-X

16%

2-2

14%

X-2

9%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

11.2%

1-0

9.9%

2-1

9.6%

2-0

8.3%

0-0

6.5%

0-1

6.4%

1-2

6.2%

2-2

5.5%

3-1

5.1%

3-0

4.8%

0-2

3.5%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Barnet – Swindon Town prediction & betting tips (Oct 20, 2026).

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