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Cheltenham Town vs Grimsby Town

Cheltenham Town vs Grimsby Town 2-2 Score & Prediction Review

League Two - Season 2026/2027 (Round 5)

Fair result

Cheltenham Town

2–2

Grimsby Town

1.6Chances (xG)1.5

On these chances Cheltenham Town would usually take 1.5 points and Grimsby Town 1.3; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Grimsby Town.

Cheltenham Town −0.5 pts vs chancesGrimsby Town −0.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Cheltenham Town vs Grimsby Town stats: how the match was played

League Two

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Cheltenham Town

Grimsby Town

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

42%

Possession

58%

The match between Cheltenham Town and Grimsby Town ended 2-2. Our AI model predicted an Grimsby Town win at 51% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. None of the key markets landed for this fixture — these matches help refine the model and improve future accuracy.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Rochdale – Grimsby Town prediction & betting tips (Oct 20, 2026).

Cheltenham Town vs Grimsby Town — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · League Two

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Grimsby Town to win

Wrong

Our model 51%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 2,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.

Our model 50%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 3,139 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 53%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 2,855 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 74%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 4,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 44%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Cheltenham Town Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cheltenham Town 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 76%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 842 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.5%).

Grimsby Town Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Grimsby Town 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 54%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 1,014 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.6% of the time (bookmakers said 59.2%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Cheltenham Town vs Grimsby Town 2-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Cheltenham Town vs Grimsby Town. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

League Two - England

Cheltenham Town2

Grimsby Town2

Winner

2 51%

BTTS*

No 50%

Correct Score

0-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 53%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 64%

· FT

League Two - England

Cheltenham Town2

Grimsby Town2

Winner

2 51%

BTTS*

No 50%

Correct Score

0-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 53%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 64%

Full Time

123%

X26%

251%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	28%	72%	53%	47%	64%	36%	86%	14%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	28%	72%	53%	47%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	64%	36%	86%	14%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	43%	57%	76%	24%	93%	7%	98%	2%
	22%	78%	54%	47%	79%	21%	92%	8%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	43%	57%	76%	24%
	22%	78%	54%	47%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	93%	7%	98%	2%
	79%	21%	92%	8%

1st Half

119%

X44%

237%

1st Score

135%

X8%

257%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

32%

X-2

19%

X-X

16%

1-1

11%

X-1

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

0-1

12.1%

1-1

12.0%

0-2

9.8%

1-2

9.3%

0-0

8.3%

1-0

7.3%

2-1

5.5%

1-3

4.9%

0-3

4.9%

2-2

4.9%

2-0

3.6%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Rochdale – Grimsby Town prediction & betting tips (Oct 20, 2026).