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Rochdale vs Swindon Town

Rochdale vs Swindon Town 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

League Two - Season 2026/2027 (Round 9)

Fair result

Rochdale

1–0

Swindon Town

1.6Chances (xG)0.9

On these chances Rochdale would usually take 1.9 points and Swindon Town 0.9; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Rochdale.

Rochdale +1.1 pts vs chancesSwindon Town −0.9 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Rochdale vs Swindon Town stats: how the match was played

League Two

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Rochdale had more than twice the shots on target

Rochdale

Swindon Town

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

Red cards

60%

Possession

40%

The match between Rochdale and Swindon Town ended 1-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Rochdale win with 54% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Rochdale – Grimsby Town prediction & betting tips (Oct 20, 2026).

Rochdale vs Swindon Town — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · League Two

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Rochdale to win

Correct

Our model 54%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 2,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

Our model 60%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 2,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 61%Bookmakers 59%

Our track record

In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 61%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 2,403 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Rochdale ahead at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Draw at half-time.

Our model 41%Bookmakers 33%

Our track record

In 2,232 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Rochdale Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Rochdale 2+ goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Rochdale 0–1 goals.

Our model 56%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 1,027 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.1% than to our 55–60%.

Swindon Town Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Swindon Town 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 70%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 3,381 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Rochdale vs Swindon Town 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Rochdale vs Swindon Town. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

League Two - England

Rochdale1

Swindon Town0

Winner

1 54%

BTTS*

Yes 60%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 61%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 51%

· FT

League Two - England

Rochdale1

Swindon Town0

Winner

1 54%

BTTS*

Yes 60%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 61%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 51%

Full Time

154%

X22%

224%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	18%	82%	39%	61%	51%	49%	75%	25%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	18%	82%	39%	61%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	51%	49%	75%	25%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	17%	83%	44%	56%	70%	30%	86%	14%
	40%	60%	70%	30%	89%	11%	97%	3%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	17%	83%	44%	56%
	40%	60%	70%	30%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	70%	30%	86%	14%
	89%	11%	97%	3%

1st Half

141%

X38%

221%

1st Score

157%

X5%

238%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

32%

X-1

17%

X-X

14%

2-2

13%

X-2

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

10.1%

2-1

9.5%

1-0

8.0%

2-0

8.0%

1-2

6.2%

3-1

6.0%

2-2

5.6%

3-0

5.1%

0-1

5.0%

0-0

4.7%

3-2

3.5%

0-2

3.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Rochdale vs Swindon Town — Recent Form

Rochdale have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 13th in the table. Swindon Town have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 18th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Rochdale

Swindon Town

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Rochdale

3/5

Swindon Town

2/5

Both Teams to Score

Rochdale

2/5

Swindon Town

2/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Rochdale

1/5

Swindon Town

1/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Rochdale

4/5

Swindon Town

5/5

First Half Result

Rochdale

0/5

Swindon Town

2/5

Correct Score

Rochdale

1/5

Swindon Town

3/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Rochdale – Grimsby Town prediction & betting tips (Oct 20, 2026).