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Exeter City vs Rotherham United 1-0 Score & Prediction Review
League Two - Season 2026/2027 (Round 9)
Exeter City1–0
Rotherham UnitedOn these chances Exeter City would usually take 2.5 points and Rotherham United 0.4; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Exeter City.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Exeter City vs Rotherham United stats: how the match was played
League Two
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Exeter City had more than twice the shots on target
Exeter City
Rotherham United
7
Shots on target
0
8
Big chances
1
8
Corners
2
2
Yellow cards
1
47%
Possession
53%
Exeter City vs Rotherham United — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · League Two
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Exeter City to win
CorrectOur track record
In 2,116 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.6% of the time (bookmakers said 44.0%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
WrongOur track record
In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 2.5 goals.
Our track record
In 2,855 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
CorrectOur track record
In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Our model’s pick
Exeter City 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,463 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.8% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).
Our model’s pick
Rotherham United 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,280 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Exeter City vs Rotherham United 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Exeter City vs Rotherham United. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Exeter City1
Rotherham United0Winner
12 73%
BTTS*
Yes 52%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 55%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 66%
Exeter City1Rotherham United0Winner
12 73%
BTTS*
Yes 52%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 55%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 66%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 29% | 71% | 55% | 45% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 66% | 34% | 88% | 12% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29% | 71% | 64% | 36% |
| 33% | 67% | 68% | 32% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86% | 14% | 96% | 4% |
| 89% | 11% | 97% | 3% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
23%
X-X
18%
2-2
17%
X-1
14%
X-2
13%
1-X
6%
2-X
6%
1-2
2%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
13.1%
1-0
10.8%
0-1
9.8%
0-0
8.5%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
7.9%
2-0
6.7%
0-2
5.6%
2-2
4.9%
3-1
3.5%
1-3
3.1%
3-0
3.0%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Exeter City vs Rotherham United — Recent Form
Exeter City have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 16th in the table. Rotherham United have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 23rd in the table.
Last 5 matches
Exeter CityRotherham UnitedOur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Rotherham UnitedExeter CityBoth Teams to Score
Rotherham UnitedExeter CityOver/Under 2.5 Goals
Rotherham UnitedExeter CityOver/Under 3.5 Goals
Rotherham UnitedExeter CityFirst Half Result
Rotherham UnitedExeter CityCorrect Score
Rotherham UnitedExeter City