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Crewe Alexandra vs Bristol Rovers

Crewe Alexandra vs Bristol Rovers 3-1 Score & Prediction Review

League Two - Season 2026/2027 (Round 9)

Fair result

Crewe Alexandra

3–1

Bristol Rovers

1.6Chances (xG)1.3

On these chances Crewe Alexandra would usually take 1.5 points and Bristol Rovers 1.2; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Bristol Rovers.

Crewe Alexandra +1.5 pts vs chancesBristol Rovers −1.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Crewe Alexandra vs Bristol Rovers stats: how the match was played

League Two

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Crewe Alexandra

Bristol Rovers

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

49%

Possession

51%

The match between Crewe Alexandra and Bristol Rovers ended 3-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Crewe Alexandra win with 43% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Exeter City – Crewe Alexandra prediction & betting tips (Oct 20, 2026).

Crewe Alexandra vs Bristol Rovers — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · League Two

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Crewe Alexandra to win

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Bristol Rovers to win.

Our model 43%Bookmakers 35%

Our track record

In 1,064 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 30.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.3% than to our 40–45%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 55%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 52%Bookmakers 53%

Our track record

In 5,191 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 70%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 4,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 44%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Crewe Alexandra Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Crewe Alexandra 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 57%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 3,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Bristol Rovers Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Bristol Rovers 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 67%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 3,280 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Crewe Alexandra vs Bristol Rovers 3-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Crewe Alexandra vs Bristol Rovers. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

League Two - England

Crewe Alexandra3

Bristol Rovers1

Winner

1X 69%

BTTS*

Yes 55%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 60%

· FT

League Two - England

Crewe Alexandra3

Bristol Rovers1

Winner

1X 69%

BTTS*

Yes 55%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 60%

Full Time

143%

X26%

231%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	24%	76%	48%	52%	60%	40%	83%	17%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	24%	76%	48%	52%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	60%	40%	83%	17%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	25%	75%	57%	43%	81%	19%	93%	7%
	34%	66%	67%	33%	88%	12%	97%	3%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	25%	75%	57%	43%
	34%	66%	67%	33%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	81%	19%	93%	7%
	88%	12%	97%	3%

1st Half

130%

X44%

226%

1st Score

147%

X7%

246%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

22%

2-2

18%

X-X

17%

X-1

14%

X-2

12%

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

12.2%

1-0

9.4%

2-1

8.9%

0-1

8.1%

1-2

7.5%

2-0

7.0%

0-0

6.7%

2-2

5.6%

0-2

4.8%

3-1

4.4%

3-0

3.7%

1-3

3.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Crewe Alexandra vs Bristol Rovers — Recent Form

Crewe Alexandra have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 3rd in the table. Bristol Rovers have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 9th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Crewe Alexandra

Bristol Rovers

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Crewe Alexandra

2/5

Bristol Rovers

4/5

Both Teams to Score

Crewe Alexandra

3/5

Bristol Rovers

2/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Crewe Alexandra

4/5

Bristol Rovers

3/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Crewe Alexandra

3/5

Bristol Rovers

3/5

First Half Result

Crewe Alexandra

3/5

Bristol Rovers

3/5

Correct Score

Crewe Alexandra

2/5

Bristol Rovers

1/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Exeter City – Crewe Alexandra prediction & betting tips (Oct 20, 2026).