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  4. Marítimo vs Casa Pia

Marítimo vs Casa Pia 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

Liga Portugal - Season 2026/2027 (Round 1)

Fair result
MarítimoMarítimo

1–0

Casa PiaCasa Pia
1.5Chances (xG)1.0

On these chances Marítimo would usually take 1.7 points and Casa Pia 1.0; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Marítimo.

Marítimo +1.3 pts vs chancesCasa Pia −1.0 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Marítimo vs Casa Pia stats: how the match was played

Liga Portugal

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Marítimo

Casa Pia

4

Shots on target

4

2

Big chances

1

2

Corners

6

2

Yellow cards

2

39%

Possession

61%

The match between Marítimo and Casa Pia ended 1-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Marítimo win with 44% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Vitória SC – Marítimo prediction & betting tips (Oct 23, 2026).

Marítimo vs Casa Pia — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga Portugal

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Marítimo to win

Correct
Our model 44%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 3,626 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.0% of the time (bookmakers said 46.9%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct
Our model 51%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 54%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 5,191 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 75%Bookmakers 80%

Our track record

In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 50%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Marítimo Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Marítimo 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 60%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Casa Pia Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Casa Pia 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 72%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 3,381 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Marítimo vs Casa Pia 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Marítimo vs Casa Pia. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Liga Portugal - Portugal
MarítimoMarítimo1
Casa PiaCasa Pia0

Winner

1X 72%

BTTS*

No 51%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 65%

Full Time

144%
X28%
228%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT30%70%54%46%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT65%35%86%14%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Marítimo27%73%60%40%
Casa Pia38%62%72%28%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Marítimo83%17%94%6%
Casa Pia90%10%97%3%

1st Half

132%
X50%
219%

1st Score

157%
X10%
234%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

26%

X-X

21%

X-1

19%

2-2

11%

X-2

9%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

2%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

1-1

12.5%

1-0

11.7%

0-0

9.5%

2-1

8.9%

0-1

8.5%

2-0

7.9%

1-2

6.6%

2-2

5.0%

0-2

4.3%

3-1

3.9%

3-0

3.6%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Vitória SC – Marítimo prediction & betting tips (Oct 23, 2026).

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