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Casa Pia vs Benfica 0-7 Score & Prediction Review

Liga Portugal - Season 2026/2027 (Round 2)

Fair result
Casa PiaCasa Pia

0–7

BenficaBenfica
0.3Chances (xG)2.1

On these chances Casa Pia would usually take 0.3 points and Benfica 2.6; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Benfica.

Casa Pia −0.3 pts vs chancesBenfica +0.5 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Casa Pia vs Benfica stats: how the match was played

Liga Portugal

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Benfica had more than twice the shots on target

Casa Pia

Benfica

0

Shots on target

8

1

Big chances

5

1

Corners

3

2

Yellow cards

0

1

Red cards

0

36%

Possession

64%

The match between Casa Pia and Benfica ended 0-7. Our AI model correctly predicted an Benfica win with 59% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Both Teams To Score.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Santa Clara – Benfica prediction & betting tips (Oct 26, 2026).

Casa Pia vs Benfica — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga Portugal

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Benfica to win

Correct
Our model 59%Bookmakers 83%

Our track record

In 1,802 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.2% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct
Our model 58%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 56%Bookmakers 37%

Our track record

In 817 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 55–60%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 77%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Benfica ahead at half-time

Correct
Our model 47%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Casa Pia Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Casa Pia 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 84%Bookmakers 90%

Our track record

In 395 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.5% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).

Benfica Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Benfica 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Benfica 2+ goals.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 26%

Our track record

In 848 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 42.6% than to our 50–55%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Casa Pia vs Benfica 0-7 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Casa Pia vs Benfica. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Liga Portugal - Portugal
Casa PiaCasa Pia0
BenficaBenfica7

Winner

2 59%

BTTS*

No 58%

Correct Score

0-1 15%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 67%

Full Time

116%
X25%
259%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT32%68%56%44%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT67%33%86%14%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Casa Pia53%47%84%16%
Benfica20%80%51%49%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Casa Pia96%4%99%1%
Benfica76%24%90%10%

1st Half

113%
X40%
247%

1st Score

123%
X10%
266%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

42%

X-2

20%

X-X

15%

1-1

7%

X-1

5%

1-2

4%

1-X

3%

2-X

3%

2-1

1%

Correct Score

0-1

15.2%

0-2

11.5%

1-1

10.4%

0-0

10.2%

1-2

9.0%

0-3

7.1%

1-0

6.5%

1-3

4.9%

2-1

3.8%

2-2

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Santa Clara – Benfica prediction & betting tips (Oct 26, 2026).

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