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Sporting Braga vs Vitória SC 1-0 Score & Prediction Review
Liga Portugal - Season 2026/2027 (Round 4)
Sporting Braga1–0
Vitória SCOn these chances Sporting Braga would usually take 1.6 points and Vitória SC 1.1; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Sporting Braga.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Sporting Braga vs Vitória SC stats: how the match was played
Liga Portugal
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Sporting Braga had more than twice the shots on target
Sporting Braga
Vitória SC
4
Shots on target
2
2
Big chances
1
2
Corners
2
2
Yellow cards
3
55%
Possession
45%
Sporting Braga vs Vitória SC — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Liga Portugal
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Sporting Braga to win
CorrectOur track record
In 1,065 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 67.2% of the time (bookmakers said 66.4%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Yes, both score.
Our track record
In 3,139 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Under 2.5 goals.
Our track record
In 2,849 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 4,576 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).
Our model’s pick
Sporting Braga ahead at half-time
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Draw at half-time.
Our track record
In 530 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 35.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 38.9% than to our 45–50%.
Our model’s pick
Sporting Braga 2+ goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Sporting Braga 0–1 goals.
Our track record
In 1,026 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.1% than to our 55–60%.
Our model’s pick
Vitória SC 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 1,503 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 78.7% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Sporting Braga vs Vitória SC 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Sporting Braga vs Vitória SC. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Sporting Braga1
Vitória SC0Winner
1 61%
BTTS*
No 51%
Correct Score
1-0 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 61%
Sporting Braga1Vitória SC0Winner
1 61%
BTTS*
No 51%
Correct Score
1-0 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 61%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 24% | 76% | 48% | 52% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 61% | 39% | 82% | 18% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16% | 84% | 44% | 56% |
| 50% | 50% | 81% | 19% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71% | 29% | 88% | 12% |
| 95% | 5% | 99% | 1% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
41%
X-1
19%
X-X
13%
2-2
8%
X-2
5%
1-X
4%
2-X
4%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-0
12.3%
2-0
11.3%
1-1
10.3%
2-1
10.1%
3-0
7.2%
0-0
6.8%
3-1
5.9%
0-1
5.1%
1-2
4.4%
2-2
4.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score