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Shandong Taishan vs Yunnan Yukun 4-3 Score & Prediction Review

Super League - Season 2026 (Round 18)

Smash-and-grab

Shandong Taishan won with fewer chances than Yunnan Yukun

Shandong TaishanShandong Taishan

4–3

Yunnan YukunYunnan Yukun
2.0Chances (xG)2.9

On these chances Shandong Taishan would usually take 1.0 points and Yunnan Yukun 1.9; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Shandong Taishan.

Shandong Taishan +2.0 pts vs chancesYunnan Yukun −1.9 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Shandong Taishan vs Yunnan Yukun stats: how the match was played

Super League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Shandong Taishan

Yunnan Yukun

8

Shots on target

7

4

Big chances

5

2

Corners

14

1

Yellow cards

0

43%

Possession

57%

The match between Shandong Taishan and Yunnan Yukun ended 4-3. Our AI model correctly predicted a Shandong Taishan win with 59% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Qingdao Youth Island – Yunnan Yukun prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Shandong Taishan vs Yunnan Yukun — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Super League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Shandong Taishan to win

Correct
Our model 59%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 1,800 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.2% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 55%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 6,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 58%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 5,328 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 3.5 goals.

Our model 64%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 246 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.7% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 47.1% than to our 60–65%.

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Shandong Taishan ahead at half-time

Correct
Our model 43%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 6,715 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Shandong Taishan Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Shandong Taishan 2+ goals

Correct
Our model 58%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,476 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Yunnan Yukun Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yunnan Yukun 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 77%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 2,597 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.1% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Shandong Taishan vs Yunnan Yukun 4-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Shandong Taishan vs Yunnan Yukun. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Super League - China
Shandong TaishanShandong Taishan4
Yunnan YukunYunnan Yukun3

Winner

1 59%

BTTS*

Yes 55%

Correct Score

1-0 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 57%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 54%

Full Time

159%
X23%
218%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT21%79%43%57%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT54%46%77%23%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Shandong Taishan16%84%42%58%
Yunnan Yukun46%54%77%23%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Shandong Taishan69%31%85%15%
Yunnan Yukun92%8%98%2%

1st Half

143%
X37%
220%

1st Score

161%
X6%
233%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

37%

X-1

18%

X-X

11%

2-2

10%

X-2

7%

1-X

5%

2-1

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-0

10.5%

2-1

9.8%

1-1

9.6%

2-0

9.3%

3-1

6.0%

0-0

5.9%

3-0

5.9%

2-2

5.3%

0-1

5.0%

1-2

4.7%

3-2

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Qingdao Youth Island – Yunnan Yukun prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

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