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MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II

MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II 3-2 Score & Prediction Review

3. Liga - Season 2026/2027 (Round 8)

Fair result

MSV Duisburg

3–2

Hoffenheim II

1.1Chances (xG)1.6

On these chances MSV Duisburg would usually take 1.1 points and Hoffenheim II 1.7; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: MSV Duisburg.

MSV Duisburg +1.9 pts vs chancesHoffenheim II −1.7 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II stats: how the match was played

3. Liga

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

MSV Duisburg

Hoffenheim II

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

39%

Possession

61%

The match between MSV Duisburg and Hoffenheim II ended 3-2. Our AI model correctly predicted a MSV Duisburg win with 56% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: MSV Duisburg – Stuttgart II prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).

MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · 3. Liga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

MSV Duisburg to win

Correct

Our model 56%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 1,800 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.4% of the time (bookmakers said 61.2%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 60%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 2,482 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 62%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,103 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.7%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 62%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 2,408 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.7% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

MSV Duisburg ahead at half-time

Wrong

Our model 42%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 6,634 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.4% of the time (bookmakers said 44.1%).

MSV Duisburg Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

MSV Duisburg 2+ goals

Correct

Our model 57%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 3,471 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.2%).

Hoffenheim II Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Hoffenheim II 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 71%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,370 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.6% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II 3-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

3. Liga - Germany

MSV Duisburg3

Hoffenheim II2

Winner

1 56%

BTTS*

Yes 60%

Correct Score

2-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 62%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 52%

· FT

3. Liga - Germany

MSV Duisburg3

Hoffenheim II2

Winner

1 56%

BTTS*

Yes 60%

Correct Score

2-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 62%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 52%

Full Time

156%

X21%

222%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	18%	82%	39%	62%	52%	48%	76%	24%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	18%	82%	39%	62%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	52%	48%	76%	24%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	16%	84%	43%	57%	69%	31%	86%	14%
	40%	60%	71%	29%	90%	10%	97%	3%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	16%	84%	43%	57%
	40%	60%	71%	29%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	69%	31%	86%	14%
	90%	10%	97%	3%

1st Half

142%

X37%

222%

1st Score

163%

X4%

233%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

35%

X-1

17%

X-X

12%

2-2

12%

X-2

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

2-1

10.6%

1-1

9.8%

1-0

8.6%

2-0

8.2%

3-1

6.1%

1-2

6.0%

2-2

5.6%

3-0

5.5%

0-1

4.7%

0-0

4.3%

3-2

3.9%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II — Recent Form

MSV Duisburg have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 1st in the table. Hoffenheim II have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 8th in the table.

Last 5 matches

MSV Duisburg

Hoffenheim II

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

MSV Duisburg

3/5

Hoffenheim II

5/5

Both Teams to Score

MSV Duisburg

5/5

Hoffenheim II

4/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

MSV Duisburg

4/5

Hoffenheim II

4/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

MSV Duisburg

2/5

Hoffenheim II

2/5

First Half Result

MSV Duisburg

1/5

Hoffenheim II

1/5

Correct Score

MSV Duisburg

1/5

Hoffenheim II

0/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: MSV Duisburg – Stuttgart II prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).