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TSG Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund

TSG Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund 2-3 Score & Prediction Review

Bundesliga - Season 2026/2027 (Round 2)

Fair result

TSG Hoffenheim

2–3

Borussia Dortmund

2.0Chances (xG)1.3

On these chances TSG Hoffenheim would usually take 1.8 points and Borussia Dortmund 1.0; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: TSG Hoffenheim.

TSG Hoffenheim −1.8 pts vs chancesBorussia Dortmund +2.1 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

TSG Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund stats: how the match was played

Bundesliga

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

TSG Hoffenheim had clearly more shots on target

TSG Hoffenheim

Borussia Dortmund

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

60%

Possession

40%

The match between TSG Hoffenheim and Borussia Dortmund ended 2-3. Our AI model correctly predicted an Borussia Dortmund win with 44% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Borussia Mönchengladbach – TSG Hoffenheim prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

TSG Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Bundesliga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Borussia Dortmund to win

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: TSG Hoffenheim to win.

Our model 44%Bookmakers 38%

Our track record

In 1,064 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 30.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.3% than to our 40–45%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 67%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 406 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.1% of the time (bookmakers said 65.2%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 68%Bookmakers 67%

Our track record

In 1,157 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.0% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 53%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 286 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Borussia Dortmund ahead at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Draw at half-time.

Our model 36%Bookmakers 31%

Our track record

In 1,233 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.1% of the time (bookmakers said 35.1%).

TSG Hoffenheim Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

TSG Hoffenheim 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: TSG Hoffenheim 2+ goals.

Our model 56%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 1,027 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.1% than to our 55–60%.

Borussia Dortmund Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Borussia Dortmund 2+ goals

Correct

Our model 52%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 1,014 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.6% of the time (bookmakers said 59.2%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

TSG Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund 2-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for TSG Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Bundesliga - Germany

TSG Hoffenheim2

Borussia Dortmund3

Winner

X2 66%

BTTS*

Yes 67%

Correct Score

1-1 09%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 68%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 57%

· FT

Bundesliga - Germany

TSG Hoffenheim2

Borussia Dortmund3

Winner

X2 66%

BTTS*

Yes 67%

Correct Score

1-1 09%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 68%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 57%

Full Time

134%

X22%

244%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	14%	86%	32%	68%	43%	57%	69%	31%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	14%	86%	32%	68%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	43%	57%	69%	31%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	29%	71%	56%	44%	79%	21%	92%	9%
	22%	78%	48%	52%	72%	28%	88%	12%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	29%	71%	56%	44%
	22%	78%	48%	52%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	79%	21%	92%	9%
	72%	28%	88%	12%

1st Half

130%

X34%

236%

1st Score

143%

X3%

254%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

27%

1-1

21%

X-X

12%

X-2

12%

X-1

11%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

8.8%

1-2

8.3%

2-1

7.3%

2-2

7.1%

0-1

5.4%

0-2

5.3%

1-3

5.2%

1-0

4.8%

2-3

4.5%

3-1

4.0%

2-0

3.9%

3-2

3.8%

0-0

3.4%

0-3

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Borussia Mönchengladbach – TSG Hoffenheim prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).