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Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 3-4 Score & Prediction Review
Bundesliga - Season 2026/2027 (Round 4)
Borussia Mönchengladbach3–4
FSV Mainz 05On these chances Borussia Mönchengladbach would usually take 1.8 points and FSV Mainz 05 1.0; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: FSV Mainz 05.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 stats: how the match was played
Bundesliga
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Level on shots on target
Borussia Mönchengladbach
FSV Mainz 05
7
Shots on target
8
4
Big chances
5
6
Corners
4
6
Yellow cards
5
47%
Possession
53%
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Bundesliga
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
FSV Mainz 05 to win
CorrectOur track record
In 3,513 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 2,403 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).
Our model’s pick
FSV Mainz 05 ahead at half-time
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Draw at half-time.
Our track record
In 1,233 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 35.1% than to our 35–40%.
Our model’s pick
Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 2,712 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).
Our model’s pick
FSV Mainz 05 2+ goals
CorrectOur track record
In 1,014 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.6% of the time (bookmakers said 59.2%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 3-4 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Borussia Mönchengladbach3
FSV Mainz 054Winner
X2 72%
BTTS*
Yes 58%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 59%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 53%
Borussia Mönchengladbach3FSV Mainz 054Winner
X2 72%
BTTS*
Yes 58%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 59%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 53%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 20% | 80% | 41% | 59% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 53% | 47% | 77% | 23% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36% | 64% | 67% | 33% |
| 22% | 78% | 49% | 51% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87% | 13% | 96% | 4% |
| 74% | 26% | 89% | 11% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
32%
1-1
17%
X-2
14%
X-X
12%
X-1
9%
2-X
6%
1-X
5%
1-2
4%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
10.3%
1-2
8.6%
0-1
8.3%
0-2
7.2%
2-1
6.6%
2-2
6.5%
1-0
6.3%
0-0
5.6%
1-3
5.3%
0-3
4.3%
2-0
3.8%
2-3
3.7%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 — Recent Form
FSV Mainz 05 have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 5th in the table. Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 18th in the table.
Last 5 matches
FSV Mainz 05Borussia MönchengladbachOur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Borussia MönchengladbachFSV Mainz 05Both Teams to Score
Borussia MönchengladbachFSV Mainz 05Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Borussia MönchengladbachFSV Mainz 05Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Borussia MönchengladbachFSV Mainz 05First Half Result
Borussia MönchengladbachFSV Mainz 05Correct Score
Borussia MönchengladbachFSV Mainz 05