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Paderborn vs TSG Hoffenheim 3-1 Score & Prediction Review
Bundesliga - Season 2026/2027 (Round 4)
Paderborn3–1
TSG HoffenheimOn these chances Paderborn would usually take 1.0 points and TSG Hoffenheim 1.8; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: TSG Hoffenheim.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Paderborn vs TSG Hoffenheim stats: how the match was played
Bundesliga
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Paderborn had more than twice the shots on target
Paderborn
TSG Hoffenheim
5
Shots on target
2
2
Big chances
3
6
Corners
5
0
Yellow cards
1
34%
Possession
66%
Paderborn vs TSG Hoffenheim — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Bundesliga
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
TSG Hoffenheim to win
WrongOur track record
In 2,116 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.6% of the time (bookmakers said 44.0%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 406 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.1% of the time (bookmakers said 65.2%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 1,157 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.0% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 3.5 goals.
Our track record
In 178 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.6% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: TSG Hoffenheim ahead at half-time.
Our track record
In 1,233 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.1% of the time (bookmakers said 35.1%).
Our model’s pick
Paderborn 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 2,827 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).
Our model’s pick
TSG Hoffenheim 0–1 goals
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: TSG Hoffenheim 2+ goals.
Our track record
In 848 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 42.6% than to our 50–55%.
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Paderborn vs TSG Hoffenheim 3-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Paderborn vs TSG Hoffenheim. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Paderborn3
TSG Hoffenheim1Winner
12 78%
BTTS*
Yes 68%
Correct Score
1-1 09%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 69%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 57%
Paderborn3TSG Hoffenheim1Winner
12 78%
BTTS*
Yes 68%
Correct Score
1-1 09%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 69%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 57%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 13% | 87% | 31% | 69% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 43% | 57% | 69% | 31% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26% | 74% | 52% | 48% |
| 25% | 75% | 52% | 48% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76% | 24% | 90% | 10% |
| 76% | 24% | 89% | 11% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
24%
1-1
23%
X-1
13%
X-X
13%
X-2
10%
2-X
6%
1-X
5%
1-2
4%
2-1
3%
Correct Score
1-1
8.9%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
8.1%
2-2
7.2%
0-1
5.1%
1-0
4.9%
3-1
4.6%
0-2
4.5%
1-3
4.4%
2-0
4.3%
3-2
4.2%
2-3
3.9%
0-0
3.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Paderborn vs TSG Hoffenheim — Recent Form
Paderborn have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 15th in the table. TSG Hoffenheim have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 17th in the table.
Last 5 matches
PaderbornTSG HoffenheimOur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
PaderbornTSG HoffenheimBoth Teams to Score
PaderbornTSG HoffenheimOver/Under 2.5 Goals
PaderbornTSG HoffenheimOver/Under 3.5 Goals
PaderbornTSG HoffenheimFirst Half Result
PaderbornTSG HoffenheimCorrect Score
PaderbornTSG Hoffenheim