Home
Leagues
Carabao Cup
Tranmere Rovers vs Rochdale

Tranmere Rovers vs Rochdale 2-2 Score & Prediction Review

Carabao Cup - Season 2026/2027 Preliminary Round (Qualifying)

Tranmere Rovers vs Rochdale stats: how the match was played

Carabao Cup

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Tranmere Rovers created more than twice the chances

Tranmere Rovers

Rochdale

2.1

Chances (xG)

0.8

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

28%

Possession

72%

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

The match between Tranmere Rovers and Rochdale ended 2-2. Our AI model predicted an Rochdale win at 53% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.

Tranmere Rovers vs Rochdale — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Carabao Cup

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Rochdale to win

Wrong

Our model 53%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 2,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 51%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Under 2.5 goals.

Our model 57%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 817 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 55–60%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 65%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 3,986 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

Our model 40%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 2,043 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.3% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).

Tranmere Rovers Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Tranmere Rovers 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 71%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 1,588 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Rochdale Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Rochdale 2+ goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Rochdale 0–1 goals.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 848 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 42.6% than to our 50–55%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Tranmere Rovers vs Rochdale 2-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Tranmere Rovers vs Rochdale. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Carabao Cup - England

Tranmere Rovers2

Rochdale2

Winner

2 53%

BTTS*

Yes 51%

Correct Score

0-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 57%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 55%

· FT

Carabao Cup - England

Tranmere Rovers2

Rochdale2

Winner

2 53%

BTTS*

Yes 51%

Correct Score

0-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 57%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 55%

Full Time

125%

X22%

253%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	22%	78%	43%	57%	55%	45%	78%	22%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	22%	78%	43%	57%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	55%	45%	78%	22%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	41%	59%	71%	29%	88%	12%	96%	4%
	20%	80%	49%	51%	73%	27%	88%	12%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	41%	59%	71%	29%
	20%	80%	49%	51%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	88%	12%	96%	4%
	73%	27%	88%	12%

1st Half

123%

X39%

238%

1st Score

137%

X6%

257%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

32%

X-2

17%

1-1

15%

X-X

13%

X-1

2-X

1-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

0-1

10.6%

1-1

9.4%

1-2

9.1%

0-2

8.1%

1-0

6.0%

0-0

5.9%

2-1

5.7%

1-3

5.3%

0-3

5.2%

2-2

5.1%

2-0

3.4%

2-3

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score