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Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Port Vale 3-0 Score & Prediction Review
Carabao Cup - Season 2026/2027 1st Round (Knock Out)
Wolverhampton Wanderers3–0
Port ValeOn these chances Wolverhampton Wanderers would usually take 1.7 points and Port Vale 1.1; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Wolverhampton Wanderers.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Port Vale stats: how the match was played
Carabao Cup
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Wolverhampton Wanderers had more than twice the shots on target
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Port Vale
7
Shots on target
3
3
Big chances
3
8
Corners
5
1
Yellow cards
1
69%
Possession
31%
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Port Vale — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Carabao Cup
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Port Vale to win
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Wolverhampton Wanderers to win.
Our track record
In 1,528 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: No, not both.
Our track record
In 3,139 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.
Our track record
In 2,855 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 4,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Wolverhampton Wanderers ahead at half-time.
Our track record
In 531 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 35.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 38.9% than to our 45–50%.
Our model’s pick
Wolverhampton Wanderers 0–1 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Wolverhampton Wanderers 2+ goals.
Our track record
In 389 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.8% than to our 60–65%.
Our model’s pick
Port Vale 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,695 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.1% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Port Vale 3-0 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Port Vale. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Wolverhampton Wanderers3
Port Vale0Winner
12 74%
BTTS*
Yes 52%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 62%
Wolverhampton Wanderers3Port Vale0Winner
12 74%
BTTS*
Yes 52%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 62%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 26% | 74% | 51% | 50% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 62% | 38% | 85% | 15% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32% | 68% | 65% | 35% |
| 30% | 70% | 63% | 37% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86% | 14% | 96% | 4% |
| 85% | 15% | 95% | 5% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
21%
2-2
20%
X-X
17%
X-2
14%
X-1
13%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-1
12.0%
0-1
9.4%
1-0
9.2%
1-2
8.1%
2-1
8.0%
0-0
7.8%
0-2
6.3%
2-0
5.7%
2-2
5.1%
1-3
3.7%
3-1
3.5%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score