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  4. Gillingham vs Luton Town

Gillingham vs Luton Town 0-3 Score & Prediction Review

Carabao Cup - Season 2026/2027 1st Round (Knock Out)

Fair result
GillinghamGillingham

0–3

Luton TownLuton Town
0.6Chances (xG)2.3

On these chances Gillingham would usually take 0.4 points and Luton Town 2.5; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Luton Town.

Gillingham −0.4 pts vs chancesLuton Town +0.5 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Gillingham vs Luton Town stats: how the match was played

Carabao Cup

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Luton Town had more than twice the shots on target

Gillingham

Luton Town

2

Shots on target

11

0

Big chances

6

2

Corners

9

1

Yellow cards

1

34%

Possession

66%

The match between Gillingham and Luton Town ended 0-3. Our AI model correctly predicted an Luton Town win with 56% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

Gillingham vs Luton Town — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Carabao Cup

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Luton Town to win

Correct
Our model 56%Bookmakers 59%

Our track record

In 1,802 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.2% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Yes, both score.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 3,139 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 53%Bookmakers 51%

Our track record

In 5,191 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 69%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 3,986 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 42%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Gillingham Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Gillingham 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 77%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 842 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.5%).

Luton Town Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Luton Town 2+ goals

Correct
Our model 52%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 1,014 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.6% of the time (bookmakers said 59.2%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Gillingham vs Luton Town 0-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Gillingham vs Luton Town. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Carabao Cup - England
GillinghamGillingham0
Luton TownLuton Town3

Winner

2 56%

BTTS*

No 51%

Correct Score

0-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 53%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 59%

Full Time

121%
X23%
256%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT24%76%47%53%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT59%41%80%20%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Gillingham46%54%77%23%
Luton Town20%80%48%52%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Gillingham92%8%98%2%
Luton Town73%27%86%14%

1st Half

120%
X42%
238%

1st Score

133%
X7%
261%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

35%

X-2

19%

X-X

13%

1-1

12%

X-1

8%

1-X

4%

2-X

4%

1-2

2%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

0-1

10.8%

1-1

10.5%

0-2

9.7%

1-2

9.3%

0-0

6.8%

1-0

6.4%

0-3

5.6%

2-1

5.2%

1-3

5.0%

2-2

4.4%

2-0

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

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