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Sheffield Wednesday vs Bolton Wanderers

Sheffield Wednesday vs Bolton Wanderers 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

Carabao Cup - Season 2026/2027 1st Round (Knock Out)

Fair result

Sheffield Wednesday

1–0

Bolton Wanderers

1.2Chances (xG)1.1

On these chances Sheffield Wednesday would usually take 1.4 points and Bolton Wanderers 1.3; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Bolton Wanderers.

Sheffield Wednesday +1.6 pts vs chancesBolton Wanderers −1.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Sheffield Wednesday vs Bolton Wanderers stats: how the match was played

Carabao Cup

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Sheffield Wednesday had more than twice the shots on target

Sheffield Wednesday

Bolton Wanderers

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

Red cards

45%

Possession

55%

The match between Sheffield Wednesday and Bolton Wanderers ended 1-0. Our AI model predicted an Bolton Wanderers win at 69% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

Sheffield Wednesday vs Bolton Wanderers — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Carabao Cup

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Bolton Wanderers to win

Wrong

Our model 69%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 616 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 70.5% of the time (bookmakers said 70.8%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Yes, both score.

Our model 53%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 3,139 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 56%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 65%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 3,986 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Bolton Wanderers ahead at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Draw at half-time.

Our model 46%Bookmakers 34%

Our track record

In 531 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 35.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 38.9% than to our 45–50%.

Sheffield Wednesday Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Sheffield Wednesday 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 84%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 395 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.5% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).

Bolton Wanderers Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Bolton Wanderers 2+ goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Bolton Wanderers 0–1 goals.

Our model 63%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 353 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.7% than to our 60–65%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Sheffield Wednesday vs Bolton Wanderers 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Sheffield Wednesday vs Bolton Wanderers. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Carabao Cup - England

Sheffield Wednesday1

Bolton Wanderers0

Winner

2 69%

BTTS*

No 53%

Correct Score

0-2 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 55%

· FT

Carabao Cup - England

Sheffield Wednesday1

Bolton Wanderers0

Winner

2 69%

BTTS*

No 53%

Correct Score

0-2 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 55%

Full Time

113%

X18%

269%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	21%	79%	44%	56%	55%	45%	76%	24%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	21%	79%	44%	56%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	55%	45%	76%	24%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	57%	43%	84%	16%	96%	4%	99%	1%
	14%	86%	37%	63%	63%	37%	81%	19%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	57%	43%	84%	16%
	14%	86%	37%	63%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	96%	4%	99%	1%
	63%	37%	81%	19%

1st Half

114%

X40%

246%

1st Score

126%

X6%

268%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

43%

X-2

21%

X-X

12%

1-1

X-1

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

0-2

12.5%

0-1

11.3%

1-2

9.0%

0-3

8.3%

1-1

8.1%

1-3

6.4%

0-0

5.9%

1-0

4.1%

2-2

3.6%

2-1

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score