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Cardiff City vs Norwich City 1-2 Score & Prediction Review

Carabao Cup - Season 2026/2027

Fair result
Cardiff CityCardiff City

1–2

Norwich CityNorwich City
1.0Chances (xG)1.3

On these chances Cardiff City would usually take 1.1 points and Norwich City 1.6; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Norwich City.

Cardiff City −1.1 pts vs chancesNorwich City +1.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Cardiff City vs Norwich City stats: how the match was played

Carabao Cup

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Cardiff City

Norwich City

3

Shots on target

3

0

Big chances

4

5

Corners

3

3

Yellow cards

1

66%

Possession

34%

The match between Cardiff City and Norwich City ended 1-2. Our AI model predicted a Cardiff City win at 47% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

Cardiff City vs Norwich City — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Carabao Cup

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cardiff City to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Norwich City to win.

Our model 47%Bookmakers 35%

Our track record

In 380 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 27.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.8% than to our 45–50%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 59%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 61%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 61%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 2,403 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 39%Bookmakers 39%

Our track record

In 2,043 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.3% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).

Cardiff City Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cardiff City 2+ goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Cardiff City 0–1 goals.

Our model 50%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 1,869 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.

Norwich City Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Norwich City 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 64%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 2,695 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.1% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Cardiff City vs Norwich City 1-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Cardiff City vs Norwich City. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Carabao Cup - England
Cardiff CityCardiff City1
Norwich CityNorwich City2

Winner

1X 70%

BTTS*

Yes 59%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 61%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 51%

Full Time

147%
X23%
230%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT19%81%39%61%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT51%49%75%25%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Cardiff City22%78%50%50%
Norwich City34%66%64%36%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Cardiff City74%26%89%11%
Norwich City85%15%95%5%

1st Half

138%
X39%
224%

1st Score

155%
X5%
240%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

30%

2-2

17%

X-1

15%

X-X

14%

X-2

9%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

10.0%

2-1

8.8%

1-0

7.7%

1-2

6.8%

2-0

6.2%

2-2

6.1%

0-1

5.9%

3-1

5.3%

0-0

5.0%

3-0

4.2%

3-2

4.0%

0-2

4.0%

1-3

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

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