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Ararat-Armenia vs Riga

Ararat-Armenia vs Riga 2-0 Score & Prediction Review

Champions League - Season 2026/2027 1st Qualifying Round (Qualifying)

Ararat-Armenia vs Riga stats: how the match was played

Champions League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Ararat-Armenia had more than twice the shots on target

Ararat-Armenia

Riga

Shots on target

Corners

Yellow cards

Red cards

The match between Ararat-Armenia and Riga ended 2-0. Our AI model predicted an Riga win at 46% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Over/Under 3.5 Goals — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.

Ararat-Armenia vs Riga — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Champions League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Riga to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Ararat-Armenia to win.

Our model 46%Bookmakers 35%

Our track record

In 380 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 27.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.8% than to our 45–50%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

Our model 55%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Under 2.5 goals.

Our model 56%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 817 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 55–60%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 66%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 3,986 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Riga ahead at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Draw at half-time.

Our model 40%Bookmakers 29%

Our track record

In 1,233 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 35.1% than to our 35–40%.

Ararat-Armenia Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Ararat-Armenia 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 66%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 2,712 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Riga Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Riga 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 54%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 1,014 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.6% of the time (bookmakers said 59.2%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Ararat-Armenia vs Riga 2-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Ararat-Armenia vs Riga. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Champions League - Europe

Ararat-Armenia2

Riga0

Winner

X2 69%

BTTS*

Yes 55%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 56%

· FT

Champions League - Europe

Ararat-Armenia2

Riga0

Winner

X2 69%

BTTS*

Yes 55%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 56%

Full Time

131%

X23%

246%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	22%	78%	44%	56%	56%	44%	80%	20%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	22%	78%	44%	56%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	56%	44%	80%	20%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	35%	65%	66%	34%	86%	14%	95%	5%
	24%	76%	54%	46%	77%	23%	91%	9%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	35%	65%	66%	34%
	24%	76%	54%	46%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	86%	14%	95%	5%
	77%	23%	91%	9%

1st Half

122%

X39%

240%

1st Score

137%

X6%

257%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

35%

1-1

15%

X-X

14%

X-2

14%

X-1

10%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

10.5%

0-1

9.0%

1-2

8.8%

2-1

7.2%

1-0

6.9%

0-2

6.8%

0-0

5.9%

2-2

5.2%

1-3

4.7%

2-0

4.5%

0-3

4.5%

3-1

3.3%

2-3

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score