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Thun vs Dinamo Zagreb 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

Champions League - Season 2026/2027 2nd Qualifying Round (Qualifying)

Fair result
ThunThun

1–1

Dinamo ZagrebDinamo Zagreb
1.4Chances (xG)1.8

On these chances Thun would usually take 1.1 points and Dinamo Zagreb 1.7; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Dinamo Zagreb.

Thun −0.1 pts vs chancesDinamo Zagreb −0.7 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Thun vs Dinamo Zagreb stats: how the match was played

Champions League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Dinamo Zagreb had more than twice the shots on target

Thun

Dinamo Zagreb

3

Shots on target

6

2

Big chances

1

9

Corners

5

3

Yellow cards

2

43%

Possession

57%

The match between Thun and Dinamo Zagreb ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted an Dinamo Zagreb win at 50% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Both Teams To Score — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.

Thun vs Dinamo Zagreb — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Champions League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Dinamo Zagreb to win

Wrong
Our model 50%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 3,513 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 61%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 2,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 67%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 1,157 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.0% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 56%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 937 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.1% of the time (bookmakers said 60.1%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Dinamo Zagreb ahead at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Draw at half-time.

Our model 46%Bookmakers 39%

Our track record

In 531 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 35.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 38.9% than to our 45–50%.

Thun Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Thun 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 63%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 3,463 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.8% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).

Dinamo Zagreb Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Dinamo Zagreb 2+ goals

Wrong
Our model 54%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 1,014 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.6% of the time (bookmakers said 59.2%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Thun vs Dinamo Zagreb 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Thun vs Dinamo Zagreb. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Champions League - Europe
ThunThun1
Dinamo ZagrebDinamo Zagreb1

Winner

X2 70%

BTTS*

Yes 61%

Correct Score

1-2 09%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 67%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 54%

Full Time

130%
X20%
250%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT15%85%33%67%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT46%54%69%31%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Thun36%64%63%37%
Dinamo Zagreb21%79%46%54%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Thun82%18%93%7%
Dinamo Zagreb69%31%85%15%

1st Half

117%
X38%
245%

1st Score

128%
X4%
268%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

42%

X-2

16%

X-X

12%

1-1

11%

X-1

7%

2-X

4%

1-X

3%

1-2

3%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-2

8.6%

1-1

8.6%

0-2

6.3%

0-1

6.2%

2-1

6.2%

2-2

5.5%

0-3

5.3%

1-0

4.7%

1-3

4.6%

2-3

3.9%

0-0

3.8%

2-0

3.6%

3-1

3.6%

3-2

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

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