Home
Leagues
Champions League
Dinamo Zagreb vs Thun

Dinamo Zagreb vs Thun 3-2 Score & Prediction Review

Champions League - Season 2026/2027 2nd Qualifying Round (Qualifying)

Dinamo Zagreb vs Thun stats: how the match was played

Champions League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Dinamo Zagreb created more than twice the chances

Dinamo Zagreb

Thun

2.8

Chances (xG)

0.7

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

Red cards

73%

Possession

27%

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

The match between Dinamo Zagreb and Thun ended 3-2. Our AI model correctly predicted a Dinamo Zagreb win with 54% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

Dinamo Zagreb vs Thun — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Champions League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Dinamo Zagreb to win

Wrong

Our model 54%Bookmakers 64%

Our track record

In 2,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 60%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 2,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 63%Bookmakers 61%

Our track record

In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 59%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 937 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.1% of the time (bookmakers said 60.1%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Dinamo Zagreb ahead at half-time

Wrong

Our model 41%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Dinamo Zagreb Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Dinamo Zagreb 2+ goals

Correct

Our model 56%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Thun Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Thun 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 68%Bookmakers 80%

Our track record

In 3,280 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Dinamo Zagreb vs Thun 3-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Dinamo Zagreb vs Thun. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Champions League - Europe

Dinamo Zagreb3

Thun2

Winner

1 54%

BTTS*

Yes 60%

Correct Score

2-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 63%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 51%

· FT

Champions League - Europe

Dinamo Zagreb3

Thun2

Winner

1 54%

BTTS*

Yes 60%

Correct Score

2-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 63%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 51%

Full Time

154%

X20%

226%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	17%	83%	37%	63%	49%	51%	73%	27%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	17%	83%	37%	63%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	49%	51%	73%	27%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	18%	82%	44%	56%	70%	30%	86%	14%
	38%	62%	68%	32%	87%	13%	95%	5%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	18%	82%	44%	56%
	38%	62%	68%	32%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	70%	30%	86%	14%
	87%	13%	95%	5%

1st Half

141%

X39%

221%

1st Score

162%

X4%

234%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

37%

X-1

19%

2-2

13%

X-X

12%

X-2

2-X

1-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

2-1

9.6%

1-1

9.1%

1-0

8.1%

2-0

7.8%

1-2

6.0%

3-1

6.0%

2-2

5.5%

0-1

5.0%

3-0

4.9%

3-2

4.4%

0-0

3.9%

0-2

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score