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NEC Nijmegen vs Olympiacos F.C.

NEC vs Olympiakos Piraeus 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

Champions League - Season 2026/2027 3rd Qualifying Round (Qualifying)

NEC vs Olympiakos Piraeus stats: how the match was played

Champions League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

NEC created clearly more chances

NEC

Olympiakos Piraeus

1.8

Chances (xG)

1.1

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

Red cards

54%

Possession

46%

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

The match between NEC and Olympiakos Piraeus ended 2-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a NEC win with 39% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

NEC vs Olympiakos Piraeus — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Champions League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

NEC to win

Wrong

Our model 39%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 2,111 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.6% of the time (bookmakers said 44.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 60%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 2,476 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 61%Bookmakers 51%

Our track record

In 3,111 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 62%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 2,399 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.9%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

Our model 41%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 6,715 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

NEC Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

NEC 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 56%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 3,476 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Olympiakos Piraeus Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Olympiakos Piraeus 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 57%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 1,615 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.6% of the time (bookmakers said 61.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

NEC vs Olympiakos Piraeus 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for NEC vs Olympiakos Piraeus. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Champions League - Europe

NEC2

Olympiakos Piraeus1

Winner

12 77%

BTTS*

Yes 60%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 61%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 52%

· FT

Champions League - Europe

NEC2

Olympiakos Piraeus1

Winner

12 77%

BTTS*

Yes 60%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 61%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 52%

Full Time

139%

X23%

238%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	18%	82%	39%	61%	52%	48%	77%	23%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	18%	82%	39%	61%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	52%	48%	77%	23%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	27%	73%	56%	44%	79%	21%	92%	8%
	27%	73%	57%	43%	80%	20%	92%	8%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	27%	73%	56%	44%
	27%	73%	57%	43%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	79%	21%	92%	8%
	80%	20%	92%	8%

1st Half

131%

X40%

228%

1st Score

148%

X5%

247%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

24%

2-2

21%

X-1

15%

X-X

14%

X-2

11%

2-X

1-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

10.2%

1-2

8.3%

2-1

8.3%

1-0

6.8%

0-1

6.7%

2-2

6.3%

2-0

5.3%

0-2

5.3%

0-0

4.7%

3-1

4.5%

1-3

4.1%

3-2

3.5%

2-3

3.2%

3-0

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score