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RB Leipzig vs Manchester City

RB Leipzig vs Manchester City Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips

Champions League - Season 2026/2027 League Stage (Group Stage) (Round 4)

Unlucky

Manchester City are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring

−7points fewer than their chances usually bring in their last 10

83% of teams this far behind their chances got more points in their next 10 games.

Bookmakers: Manchester City 63% to win

Get our AI football prediction and stats for RB Leipzig vs Manchester City: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.

RB Leipzig vs Manchester City — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Champions League

For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

RB Leipzig to win

Our model 40%Bookmakers 17%

Our track record

In 1,068 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 30.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.2% than to our 40–45%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Our model 66%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 410 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.0% of the time (bookmakers said 65.3%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Our model 67%Bookmakers 71%

Our track record

In 1,167 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.0% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Our model 55%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 263 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.1% than to our 55–60%.

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Our model 38%Bookmakers 34%

Our track record

In 1,204 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 35.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 35.0% than to our 35–40%.

RB Leipzig Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

RB Leipzig 0–1 goals

Our model 53%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 2,800 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.7%).

Manchester City Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Manchester City 0–1 goals

Our model 55%Bookmakers 30%

Our track record

In 839 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.3% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 42.5% than to our 50–55%.

Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.

RB Leipzig vs Manchester City — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market

Below are our AI-generated match predictions for RB Leipzig vs Manchester City. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.

Champions League - Europe

RB Leipzig–

Manchester City–

Winner

1X 62%

BTTS*

Yes 66%

Correct Score

1-1 09%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 67%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 55%

Champions League - Europe

RB Leipzig–

Manchester City–

Winner

1X 62%

BTTS*

Yes 66%

Correct Score

1-1 09%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 67%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 55%

Full Time

140%

X22%

238%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	15%	85%	33%	67%	45%	55%	70%	30%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	15%	85%	33%	67%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	45%	55%	70%	30%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	26%	74%	53%	47%	76%	24%	89%	11%
	27%	73%	55%	45%	77%	23%	90%	10%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	26%	74%	53%	47%
	27%	73%	55%	45%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	76%	24%	89%	11%
	77%	23%	90%	10%

1st Half

135%

X38%

228%

1st Score

153%

X3%

244%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

29%

2-2

20%

X-1

17%

X-X

10%

X-2

10%

2-X

1-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

9.4%

2-1

8.3%

1-2

7.7%

2-2

6.4%

0-1

5.6%

1-0

5.6%

2-0

4.6%

0-2

4.6%

3-1

4.3%

1-3

4.3%

2-3

3.9%

3-2

3.8%

0-0

3.5%

3-0

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

RB Leipzig vs Manchester City: Over 2.5 & BTTS?

Champions League

How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.

How to read it

a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Champions League gamesBTTS = both teams scored

Manchester City games go over 2.5 goals more often than the Champions League average (66%).

Over 2.5 goalsleague 66%

Manchester City7 of 10

BTTSleague 59%

Manchester City6 of 10

Calculated by MyGameOdds

How it works

For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 189 games played here in the last 12 months.

How we measure →

RB Leipzig vs Manchester City form and luck check

Champions League

Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.

How to read it

what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Champions League games

Manchester City are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring

Manchester CityBookmakers: 63% to win today.Wasteful · −5 goals
−6.9

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.

We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.

Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.

How we measure →

RB Leipzig vs Manchester City corners, cards and goal times

Champions League

Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.

How to read it

league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gamePro

Corners won: league 4.7
Cards: league 1.8
Goals before half-time: league 42%
Goals after 75': league 20%

Calculated by MyGameOdds

How it works

We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.

How we measure →

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

RB Leipzig

3/3

Manchester City

1/3

Both Teams to Score

RB Leipzig

2/3

Manchester City

1/3

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

RB Leipzig

2/3

Manchester City

2/3

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

RB Leipzig

1/3

Manchester City

1/3

First Half Result

RB Leipzig

1/3

Manchester City

2/3

Correct Score

RB Leipzig

0/3

Manchester City

0/3

correct predictionwrong prediction