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Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava 2-1 Score & Prediction Review
Chance Liga - Season 2026/2027 (Round 3)
Hradec Králové2–1
Baník OstravaOn these chances Hradec Králové would usually take 1.7 points and Baník Ostrava 1.0; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Hradec Králové.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava stats: how the match was played
Chance Liga
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Level on shots on target
Hradec Králové
Baník Ostrava
4
Shots on target
4
5
Big chances
2
3
Corners
2
1
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
1
58%
Possession
42%
Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Chance Liga
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Baník Ostrava to win
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Hradec Králové to win.
Our track record
In 1,064 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 30.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.3% than to our 40–45%.
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Under 2.5 goals.
Our track record
In 2,855 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 4,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Our model’s pick
Hradec Králové 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 2,712 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).
Our model’s pick
Baník Ostrava 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 1,616 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.6% of the time (bookmakers said 61.0%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Hradec Králové2
Baník Ostrava1Winner
X2 70%
BTTS*
Yes 55%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 60%
Hradec Králové2Baník Ostrava1Winner
X2 70%
BTTS*
Yes 55%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 60%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 25% | 75% | 49% | 51% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 60% | 40% | 83% | 17% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35% | 65% | 68% | 32% |
| 25% | 75% | 57% | 43% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88% | 12% | 96% | 4% |
| 81% | 19% | 93% | 7% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
24%
1-1
17%
X-X
16%
X-2
15%
X-1
12%
2-X
6%
1-X
5%
1-2
3%
2-1
3%
Correct Score
1-1
11.9%
0-1
9.9%
1-2
8.8%
1-0
8.0%
0-0
7.5%
0-2
7.3%
2-1
7.1%
2-2
5.4%
2-0
4.7%
1-3
4.5%
0-3
3.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score