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Sparta Praha vs Teplice 4-1 Score & Prediction Review

Chance Liga - Season 2026/2027 (Round 4)

Fair result
Sparta PrahaSparta Praha

4–1

TepliceTeplice
3.1Chances (xG)1.7

On these chances Sparta Praha would usually take 2.1 points and Teplice 0.7; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Sparta Praha.

Sparta Praha +0.9 pts vs chancesTeplice −0.7 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Sparta Praha vs Teplice stats: how the match was played

Chance Liga

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Sparta Praha had more than twice the shots on target

Sparta Praha

Teplice

13

Shots on target

5

6

Big chances

4

10

Corners

7

2

Yellow cards

0

0

Red cards

1

65%

Possession

35%

The match between Sparta Praha and Teplice ended 4-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Sparta Praha win with 70% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Baník Ostrava – Sparta Praha prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Sparta Praha vs Teplice — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Chance Liga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Sparta Praha to win

Correct
Our model 70%Bookmakers 69%

Our track record

In 616 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 70.5% of the time (bookmakers said 70.8%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 54%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 60%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 62%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 2,403 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Sparta Praha ahead at half-time

Correct
Our model 48%Bookmakers 51%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Sparta Praha Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Sparta Praha 2+ goals

Correct
Our model 65%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 2,712 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Teplice Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Teplice 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 83%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 1,503 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 78.8% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Sparta Praha vs Teplice 4-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Sparta Praha vs Teplice. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Chance Liga - Czech Republic
Sparta PrahaSparta Praha4
TepliceTeplice1

Winner

1 70%

BTTS*

Yes 53%

Correct Score

2-0 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 60%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 52%

Full Time

170%
X19%
212%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT19%81%40%60%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT52%48%74%26%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Sparta Praha11%89%35%65%
Teplice54%46%83%17%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Sparta Praha62%38%81%19%
Teplice96%4%99%1%

1st Half

148%
X38%
215%

1st Score

169%
X5%
226%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

45%

X-1

19%

X-X

12%

2-2

7%

X-2

5%

1-X

4%

2-X

4%

2-1

3%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

2-0

11.1%

1-0

10.5%

2-1

10.3%

1-1

8.9%

3-0

7.8%

3-1

6.9%

0-0

5.0%

2-2

4.4%

3-2

3.6%

0-1

3.4%

1-2

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Baník Ostrava – Sparta Praha prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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