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Independiente Rivadavia vs Fluminense 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

Copa Libertadores - Season 2026 8th Finals (Knock Out)

Independiente Rivadavia vs Fluminense stats: how the match was played

Copa Libertadores

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Independiente Rivadavia created clearly more chances

Independiente Rivadavia

Fluminense

1.7

Chances (xG)

1.1

3

Shots on target

4

1

Big chances

2

7

Corners

4

3

Yellow cards

5

0

Red cards

1

45%

Possession

55%

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →
The match between Independiente Rivadavia and Fluminense ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted a Independiente Rivadavia win at 37% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Palmeiras – Fluminense prediction & betting tips (Oct 22, 2026).

Independiente Rivadavia vs Fluminense — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Copa Libertadores

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Independiente Rivadavia to win

Wrong
Our model 37%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 2,116 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.6% of the time (bookmakers said 44.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong
Our model 51%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 58%Bookmakers 65%

Our track record

In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 79%Bookmakers 85%

Our track record

In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 49%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Independiente Rivadavia Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Independiente Rivadavia 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 66%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 2,712 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Fluminense Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Fluminense 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 70%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 3,280 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Independiente Rivadavia vs Fluminense 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Independiente Rivadavia vs Fluminense. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Copa Libertadores - South America
Independiente RivadaviaIndependiente Rivadavia1
FluminenseFluminense1

Winner

12 71%

BTTS*

No 51%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 69%

Full Time

137%
X29%
233%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT32%68%58%42%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT69%31%89%11%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Independiente Rivadavia31%69%66%34%
Fluminense34%66%69%31%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Independiente Rivadavia88%12%96%4%
Fluminense89%11%97%3%

1st Half

127%
X49%
224%

1st Score

150%
X10%
240%

Half Time/Full Time

X-X

20%

1-1

19%

2-2

17%

X-1

15%

X-2

14%

1-X

6%

2-X

5%

1-2

2%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

13.4%

1-0

11.4%

0-1

10.5%

0-0

10.1%

2-1

8.2%

1-2

7.5%

2-0

6.8%

0-2

5.6%

2-2

4.7%

3-1

3.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Palmeiras – Fluminense prediction & betting tips (Oct 22, 2026).

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