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Sassuolo vs Cesena

Sassuolo vs Cesena 3-0 Score & Prediction Review

Coppa Italia - Season 2026/2027 1st Round (Knock Out)

Fair result

Sassuolo

3–0

Cesena

1.8Chances (xG)0.9

On these chances Sassuolo would usually take 2.0 points and Cesena 0.8; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Sassuolo.

Sassuolo +1.0 pts vs chancesCesena −0.8 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Sassuolo vs Cesena stats: how the match was played

Coppa Italia

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Sassuolo had clearly more shots on target

Sassuolo

Cesena

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

58%

Possession

42%

The match between Sassuolo and Cesena ended 3-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Sassuolo win with 36% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

Sassuolo vs Cesena — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Coppa Italia

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Sassuolo to win

Correct

Our model 36%Bookmakers 65%

Our track record

In 2,116 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.6% of the time (bookmakers said 44.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Yes, both score.

Our model 52%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 3,139 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 55%Bookmakers 38%

Our track record

In 817 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 55–60%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 76%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Sassuolo ahead at half-time.

Our model 46%Bookmakers 35%

Our track record

In 531 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 35.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 38.9% than to our 45–50%.

Sassuolo Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Sassuolo 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Sassuolo 2+ goals.

Our model 67%Bookmakers 34%

Our track record

In 77 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 50.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.1% than to our 65–70%.

Cesena Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cesena 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 67%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 3,280 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Sassuolo vs Cesena 3-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Sassuolo vs Cesena. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Coppa Italia - Italy

Sassuolo3

Cesena0

Winner

12 71%

BTTS*

No 52%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 66%

· FT

Coppa Italia - Italy

Sassuolo3

Cesena0

Winner

12 71%

BTTS*

No 52%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 66%

Full Time

136%

X29%

236%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	32%	68%	55%	45%	66%	34%	87%	13%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	32%	68%	55%	45%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	66%	34%	87%	13%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	33%	67%	66%	34%	87%	13%	96%	4%
	33%	67%	67%	33%	87%	13%	96%	4%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	33%	67%	66%	34%
	33%	67%	67%	33%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	87%	13%	96%	4%
	87%	13%	96%	4%

1st Half

127%

X46%

227%

1st Score

147%

X10%

242%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

20%

2-2

20%

X-X

19%

X-1

15%

X-2

13%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

12.1%

0-1

10.7%

1-0

10.6%

0-0

10.3%

2-1

8.0%

1-2

7.4%

2-0

5.7%

0-2

5.7%

2-2

5.0%

3-1

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score