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Olympique Lyonnais vs Lens

Olympique Lyonnais vs Lens 2-2 Score & Prediction Review

Coupe de France - Season 2025/2026 Quarter-finals (Knock Out)

Olympique Lyonnais vs Lens stats: how the match was played

Coupe de France

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Even on chances

Olympique Lyonnais

Lens

1.2

Chances (xG)

1.2

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

Red cards

60%

Possession

40%

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

The match between Olympique Lyonnais and Lens ended 2-2. Our AI model predicted a Olympique Lyonnais win at 47% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.

Olympique Lyonnais vs Lens — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Coupe de France

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Olympique Lyonnais to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Lens to win.

Our model 47%Bookmakers 35%

Our track record

In 373 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 27.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.8% than to our 45–50%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 54%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 6,453 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.2% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 56%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 5,298 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.3% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 68%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,952 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.5% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 39%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 2,001 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.3% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).

Olympique Lyonnais Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Olympique Lyonnais 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 53%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 2,800 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.7%).

Lens Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lens 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 68%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 3,268 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 67.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Olympique Lyonnais vs Lens 2-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Olympique Lyonnais vs Lens. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Coupe de France - France

Olympique Lyonnais2

Lens2

Winner

1X 71%

BTTS*

Yes 54%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 58%

· FT

Coupe de France - France

Olympique Lyonnais2

Lens2

Winner

1X 71%

BTTS*

Yes 54%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 58%

Full Time

147%

X24%

229%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	22%	78%	44%	56%	58%	42%	81%	19%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	22%	78%	44%	56%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	58%	42%	81%	19%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	22%	78%	53%	47%	78%	22%	91%	9%
	35%	65%	68%	32%	88%	12%	96%	4%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	22%	78%	53%	47%
	35%	65%	68%	32%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	78%	22%	91%	9%
	88%	12%	96%	4%

1st Half

136%

X39%

225%

1st Score

154%

X6%

240%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

28%

2-2

17%

X-1

15%

X-X

14%

X-2

11%

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

11.3%

2-1

9.8%

1-0

9.2%

2-0

7.3%

1-2

7.1%

0-1

6.6%

0-0

5.9%

2-2

5.8%

3-1

4.7%

3-0

4.6%

0-2

4.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score